Thursday, July 17, 2014

2014 Season Report (90 Games)

A little over the half way point, and it's time to put up or shut up in Arizona. Things are looking good for a final run that will decide their playoff fates, injuries could be the difference between golf and baseball in October. Arizona, so full of promise before the season, fell on seriously hard times through the first few months. It's hard to believe they have recovered to sit in 9th overall (49-41) and 6th in the NL. The rest of the NL West fills out the bottom of the NL, and the Giants are leaving the Diamondbacks in the dust, looks like the only route to October is the Wild Card.

Who is David Peralta? No, seriously, who is David Peralta?! The 27 year old OF from Venezuela has bounced around the league since being in the Cardinals system for Rookie ball in 2006. After some time on three different teams in the independent leagues he landed at Class A-Advanced Visalia in 2013 and managed to work his way to the majors this season. With Peter Bourjos playing poorly, and Ender Inciarte not doing much better, Peralta got a shot at CF and seems to have it under wraps. Peralta is hitting a healthy .325 with 3HR and 16RBI in only 34 games, which is almost more than Bourjos and Inciarte combined. Goldschmidt continues to lead the team in basically every category; runs, HR, RBI, SB for heaven's sake, D-Bat Dogs eaten, awesomeness, you name it he leads it.


Peralta has been a valuable addition to the outfield.

Chris Owings continues to sit out a shoulder problem with JJ Hardy filling in admirably, finally finding his groove at the plate. Hardy's power isn't really there, but if Arizona had to depend on Didi Gregorious they might be out of playoff contention. Owings is currently second on the team in SB to, again... I can't stress how crazy this is, Paul Goldschmidt.

After looking like a flaming wreck the pitching staff is starting to be very respectable. A huge season from Jake Arrieta has helped paper over the absence of Gio Gonzalez, but Gonzalez is back to give the Diamondbacks a very solid rotation that goes five deep. This staff looked like Gonzalez and some guys to start the season, but some trades and a little luck have seriously changed their fortunes. R.A. Dickey looked like he was toast after coming over from the Blue Jays, but his 7-8 record and 3.86ERA / 1.32WHIP comes courtesy of a 1.20ERA in the month of July. The rotation, in it's current form, could definitely carry this team to the playoffs.

Another big difference that has gone under the radar is the re-tooling of the bullpen. Jim Johnson has basically been banished, and the Soria-Neshek-Marshall-Stites foursome has really brought things under control. Neshek, Stites, and Marshall didn't start the season in Arizona, but at this rate they may never leave. Things appear to be falling in line for Arizona, but the Baseball Gods can be fickle, so nobody is booking tickets for October just yet.

2014 Season Report (All-Star Game)

The Mid-summer classic is here, and it's a lonely trip for the Arizona Diamondbacks. After starting off the season looking like one of the worst teams in baseball the team has really come together, especially the pitching, and salvaged a run at the playoffs. Despite all of the good will generated from sitting at 5th in the NL only two Diamondbacks received a call for the 2014 All-Star Game.

During Spring Training it looked like Arizona had an outside chance at sending four guys to Minnesota; Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, Gio Gonzalez, and Patrick Corbin. One for four isn't bad, especially considering what injuries have done to Gonzalez and Corbin.

Few are surprised that an MVP candidate playing like an MVP candidate would get elected. Goldschmidt makes his second straight ASG appearance and he will be the first Diamondbacks player to start since Luis Gonzalez in 2001. The second selection comes as a real surprise; Pat Neshek. Neshek, a mid-season free agent signing and notable non-closer, gets the nod with stellar numbers (0.70ERA, 0.57WHIP) that helped shore up an ailing Diamondbacks bullpen.

Arizona doesn't have all the much to complain about considering how most of the individuals have played, but that won't stop some fans from calling 'foul' on the voting process. The Diamondbacks biggest snub is someone who is currently being wronged by the "one inning pitched per team game" rule, and falls just a few starts short of qualification. Jake Arrieta, holder of a 7-5 record, is right up there with Clayton Kershaw in ERA (1.78), WHIP (1.02), and a K/9 (10.06) that would make anyone jealous. Arrieta is joined by Ian Kennedy, who isn't having quite the season Arrieta is, but he is 5th in strike outs (125) just behind Kershaw.

Perhaps having most of the team stay away from the ASG festivities will be good, they definitely need the time to recover from injuries. Getting Chris Owings back healthy will be huge, hopefully he can round the bases on his ROY campaign.

Wednesday, July 9, 2014

Shipley & Blair Make BA Midseason Top 50

Braden Shipley and Aaron Blair, both recently promoted to Advanced-A Visalia, have been elected to Baseball America's Midseason Top 50 list. The two RHP are Arizona's only prospects to make the list with current major leaguer Chris Owings making the Pre-Season Top 100. Shipley has jumped up to 36th from 62nd, and Blair has flown up the ranks by going from outside the Top 100 to 44th.

Perhaps the questionable trades that sent away Archie Bradley, Trevor Bauer, and Tyler Skaggs are not going to be the end of the world after all.

In somewhat related news Mobile 3B Jake Lamb was named to Baseball America's MiLB All-Surprise Team on the back of an impressive season.

Thursday, July 3, 2014

2014 Season Report (80 Games)

With the half-way point just behind us the Diamondbacks' season is looking very different. A year that had started out so poorly is suddenly full of promise and the Wild Card is in reach. A hot streak has landed Arizona in 9th (44-36), 5th in the NL and just barely above the Marlins and Braves for the final Wild Card slot. 2nd in the NL West is basically a lock with the rest of the division owning the bottom of the NL (13th through 15th) and ranking as some of the worst in baseball (25th, 26th, and 28th). Colorado, Los Angeles, and San Diego are gearing up for the future, but Arizona is still trying to hang on for one last shot.


The offense has remained steady overall, but the big story is the explosion of power from Carlos Santana. Still hitting a shameful .204, Santana went to town on pitchers by hitting as many HR in June (6) as the first two months combined. Santana also hit a healthy .308 in June after hitting around .160 from March to May.



Santana might be turning his season around.


Santana's burst in production has helped cover for Aaron Hill slowing down and the recent injury to Chris Owings. Owings will be out until mid-July, but JJ Hardy has (finally) started hitting HRs to go with his healthy batting average (.294), so Arizona should have some cover until Owings returns. The other big story was Matt Adams clubbing the ball like crazy, also hitting 6HR in the moth of June. Adams has been dealing with defensive shifts all season by hitting weak singles to the opposite field, which explains his toothless .324 average, hopefully he can keep the power coming. Peter Bourjos has basically been excommunicated, now being left out of the lineup in favor of Ender Inciarte who's feeble BA (.238) is slightly higher than Bourjos' (.204) but comes with the same SB upside. The outfield continues to be a mess, but winning can make those kind of issues seem smaller.

The pitching staff continues to be the Diamondbacks' weakest point, but at the very least the starters are picking things up. Once an afterthought behind Gonzalez, Kennedy, and Corbin, Jake Arrieta is having an incredible breakout season. The 28-year-old Arrieta is 5-1 with a 1.81ERA / 1.01WHIP and 74K in 11 starts. He has flirted with no-hitters deep into games twice, and has struck out 9 or more in his last four starts. Arrieta is helping management get over trading away Phil Hughes, but they are going to need him to keep it up if the Wild Card is a reality.


Jake Arrieta has been amazing.

Gio Gonzalez is back from the DL, and the Alvarez-Kennedy duo continue to exceed expectations. RA Dickey is still struggling, but his ERA/WHIP have becomes a bit more respectable and his continued presence will be vital in making it to October.

2014 Season - Down On The Farm (May - June)

Not much news from the minors, but we are starting to get some early season promotions for some of the more promising prospects. Still doesn't look like anyone here is going to have any real impact at the major league level, but we are starting to see guys come up for a cup of coffee here and there.

RHP, Braden Shipley (Grade : B+, Class-A Advanced Visalia)

Braden Shipley has pitched his way into a promotion to Class-A Advanced Visalia after having a very good start of the season in South Bend. The California League, notoriously hitter friendly, will be quite a test for Shipley. He has struggled through 29IP so far, posting a 4.97ERA / 1.38WHIP, but striking out batters at a slightly higher tick. Nobody expects Shipley to match his numbers from South Bend, but as long as he doesn't get blown up a trip to Double-A Mobile should be in his near future.

RHP Aaron Blair (Grade : B, Class-A Advanced Visalia)

Blair, much like Shipley, has been given a shot at the California League. Blair, unlike Shipley, has actually improved his numbers since promotion.

RHP Matt Barnes (Grade : B-, Triple-A Reno)

Started 11 games so far for Triple-A Reno, results have not been spectacular but Barnes is basically major league ready. He's 24 and this is his second season in Reno, if he doesn't get promoted soon he could risk being seen as a Quadruple-A type player.

RHP Jake Barrett (Grade : B-, Triple-A Reno)

Recently promoted to Reno after recording 12 saves for Double-A Mobile, appeared in 25 games. Numbers continue to look good, whip is a little higher than you would like (1.36), but with Matt Stites getting a shot at the major league bullpen he's next in line for the "future closer" title.

RHP Alex Colome (Grade : B-, Triple-A Reno)

Alex Colome's 50-game ban for PED use has passed, and he pitched like he was worth trading Phil Hughes for... in the minors at least. Colome has split his season over Class A-Advanced Visalia and AAA Reno, totaling 39IP and 37K with a 3.00ERA and 1.23WHIP. It's only 8 total starts, but a good sign that he isn't going to be slowed by his suspension. Came up for a cup of coffee in June, going 1-0 with one start and one other appearance over 9.2 innings.

LHP David Holmberg (Grade : B-, Triple-A Reno)

Holmberg has been off so far this season, which isn't good news for anyone involved. Nobody expects him to strike everyone out, but his BB/9 have jumped (4.9) compared to previous seasons (2.9 in 2013, 1.9 in 2012) and his K:BB ratio has shrunk to 1.24. He's 0-4 in 9 starts, and a 5.75ERA isn't a ticket to the majors. Really needs to figure out what's wrong and fix it fast.

3B Jake Lamb (Grade : B-, Double-A Mobile)




Lamb has been crushing the ball for the Bay Bears. He has nearly repeated his number from 2013 in Class A-Advanced and 2012 in rookie ball. Hitting .315 and cutting your strike out rate (and walk rate too) is always a good sign, he has been a real star for Mobile this year. Hopefully he can continue to be a star in Reno and beyond. Wouldn't be surprised if he received a mid-season upgrade or started 2015 with a B/B+ grade.

SS Luis Sardinas (Grade : B-, Triple-A Reno)


Not having a great year at the plate at all, currently logging 26 games in the majors as a fill in, but he hasn't look like a major leaguer with a bat in his hands despite hitting .288. Only 9RBI and a single SB in the minors so far, hitting .253, not performing to expectations.

SS Sergio Alcantara (Grade : C+, Rookie PL)

Playing rookie ball in Missoula, not lighting the world on fire at the plate with a .274 average and 6RBI. Definitely needs to tighten things up defensively, 8 errors in 15 games isn't helping.

RHP Jimmy Sherfy (Grade : C+, Double-A Mobile)

Sherfy basically eviscerated Class-A Advanced hitters and earned a promotion to Double-A, has come down to earth since. ERA and WHIP jumped up, and his once eye-watering K/9 of 18.8 is now just amazing at 12.0.

RHP Matt Stites (Grade : C+, Triple-A Reno / MLB)


Saved 15 games through Double-A and Triple-A with solid numbers (2.89ERA / 1.14WHIP) before being promoted to the majors. Small sample size (5.1IP), but he hasn't given up a run yet and struck out just barely under a batter per inning (8.4).

OF Justin Williams (Grade : C+, Rookie PL)

Finished 2013 at Class-A after moving through two levels of rookie ball (Arizona League & Pioneer League), back at Missoula to start 2014. Not much power (1HR), but he's back to hitting .300+ after doing nothing (.111) in only 11PA at Class-A. Has played every game but one at LF.

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

2014 Season Report (70 Games)

Almost to the mid-point of the season, and things are looking a little better for the Diamondbacks. Thanks to some offensive explosions and better pitching, the Diamondbacks have crept up to 12th (35-35) overall and 10th in the NL. The only comfort is that if they were in the AL they would be in a Wild Card slot, but the NL is deep so they are three spots out and looking up at the Marlins, Braves, and Cardinals.

Injuries are still a concern, with Matt Adams currently rehabbing at AAA Reno, but at least Carlos Santana has returned to the lineup. The biggest story of the last 10 games was the tremendous offensive explosion of Lonnie Chisenhall. Chisenhall has an incredible month 10 game stretch packed into a single game, with 3HR and 9RBI on a 5/5 performance that put him tied for 2nd on the team in HR and 2nd in RBI. Chris Owings continues to be an everyday player, and the demotion of Grant Green to AAA Reno makes it even more important that he continue doing so. Goldschmidt continues to prop up the offense, and if the rest of the team can get hot they could make a mid-season run for that Wild Card spot.


Chisenhall's career day was big for Arizona

Now the pitching staff, they continue to play musical chairs with the DL and the minors. Trevor Cahill, who has been more than terrible, was DFA'd and will be sent to AAA Reno to try and save his season and possibly his career. Cahill is a free agent after the season, and he could find himself out of a job if he doesn't pull it together. Word out of Reno is that Dave Duncan will personally work with Cahill, he will also be seeing mental performance coach Peter Crone. If Cahill fails it won't be for lack of effort on Arizona's part.

Henderson Alvarez, coming off an amazing streak, has been slowed by injuries and missed a start. Gio Gonzalez is still on the DL, and the Diamondbacks desperately need him to come back strong. Jim Johnson's season is developing into a lost year, he is pitching like a below-average reliever instead of the guy who saved 101 games in two seasons. Many expect the Diamondbacks to trade Johnson as soon as possible.

Monday, June 9, 2014

2014 MLB Draft



The 2014 MLB has come and gone, and the Diamondbacks have added some fresh faces to their farm system. Arizona wasn't good enough to actually accomplish much in 2013, but they were just good enough to put them out of position to draft high. The good news is that Arizona had five picks in the Top 100, including two picks in Competitive Balance Round B (#69 & 79), so they had a good shot at grabbing some talented players.

The Diamondbacks have drafted well in recent years, but the previous manager promptly traded that talent away. Guys like Stryker Trahan, Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs, and Archie Bradley are all gone. Hard to say if any of this years' draftees will match those traded away, but there is always hope.

Round (Overall Selection) : Player (School)

1 (16) : RHP Touki Toussaint (Coral Springs Christian Academy, FLA)


A solid first pick, Arizona doesn't really have a gaping hole in their organization, but this could lessen the sting of watching Bradley/Bauer/Skaggs pitching elsewhere. Toussaint, a Vanderbilt commit, could have easily gone much higher in the draft if it had taken place a few months ago. He fell to Arizona, and the upside is undeniable with a good fastball and above-average curveball coming out of highschool. Some feel has has more upside than any pitcher in this draft class, let's hope they are right.

2 (54) : LHP Cody Reed (Ardmore Highschool, AL)


Reed, another Vanderbilt commit, is a very odd prospect. He throws in the 92-96 range and shows the foundation for three pitches. The odd part is his figure, at 6'-3" 250 he isn't your average pitcher. Hopefully his physique doesn't cause any long term problems, but he has the kind of skills that profile as a higher pick.

Comp B (69) : OF Marcus Wilson (Junipero Serra Highschool, CA)


Speedy. Check. Outfielder. Check. Wilson is what the Diamondbacks system needs, he was even receiving some first-round buzz not that long ago. Bat speed and a projectable body make him an exciting pick to pair with 2013 pick Justin Williams. Very raw and toolsy, he could be a star or flame out in the low minors.

Comp B (70) : SS Isan Diaz (Springfield Central Highschool, MA)


Yet another Vanderbilt commit, Diaz is a polished midfielder with a high baseball IQ and a feel for hitting. Scouts seem to think he will move to 2B, which is perfect for the Diamondbacks since the last thing they need is another SS.

3 (89) : OF Matt Railey (North Florida Christian Highschool, FL)

Natural hitting ability with a loose, easy swing and quick hands. Shows natural strength which could develop into power, drives the ball well. Only average speed, so he probably won't play CF at the next level, but he is naturally athletic and a solid defender.

4 (120) : RHP Brent Jones (Cornell University)

The Diamondbacks first selection out of college, probably a reliever in the long run but has room to improve and stick as a starter. Can hit the mid-90's but will probably work in the 92-93 range, has plus action of a curve but struggles with command. Throws a few other secondary pitches (cutter, changeup) but they are currently below average.

5 (150) : RHP Mason McCullough (Lander University)

Very intriguing pick, could be a serious bargain or blow up in out faces. Was dismissed from North Carolina last year after multiple team rules violations, transferred to Lander, possible character risk. Very hard throwing prospect, but command is an issue. Has been clocked at 100, but normally works in the mid-90's. Has basically gotten by muscling his way through at-bats with that fastball, no finesse, and he rarely uses a slider. Arm strength makes him very dreamy, but could end up a reliever or a career MiLB guy.

6 (180) : LHP Zac Curtis (Middle Tennessee State)


7 (210) : 3B Tyler Humphreys (St. Johns River State College)

College player with considerable upside, showed some power potential early this season. Good defender with the arm strength and instincts to stick at the hot corner.

8 (240) : OF Grant Heyman (College of Southern Nevada)

Similar to Humphreys, could have considerable upside for an 8th round selection.

Analysis

Arizona did a very good job with the draft this year, especially for a team drafting in the middle of the round. They made excellent use of their additional picks in Comp B by adding some exciting high-upside players. Overall they went with upside-oriented picks early on and then focused on college players through the 40th round. The Diamondbacks didn't do anything to grab headlines, like draft Johnny Manziel, but they made smart choices that should pan out well over the next few years.