Saturday, March 22, 2014

2014 NL West Preview

With Spring Training over and the season already started, the NL West picture has become much clearer. Two NL West teams, the Diamondbacks and Dodgers, have started their season in Australia and Arizona can't wait to get home after getting drubbed twice.

The NL West sent two teams to the playoffs in 2013, and both teams figure to return. The Giants, division and league champions, look poised for another run at the World Series. The Arizona Diamondbacks got into the playoffs as a wild-card, but they hope to take the division if the Giants falter.

NL Projected Finish

#1 San Francisco Giants (102-60) : The Giants are simply loaded, and barring any injuries will be one of the favorites to win the league and the World Series. The Giants have done an excellent job of developing and maintaining in-organization talent. The likes of Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Chris Davis, Julio Tehran, and Pablo Sandoval form a solid core. The Giants lost Adam Jones, a serious blow, but quickly replaced him with Matt Holliday on a four-year $40.8 million contract. The Giants lost the heart of their bullpen when Mariano Rivera retired, but they made trades to restock their pen with Dave Robertson, John Axford, and Neftali Feliz. Giants management also brought in David Price, and recently traded for Scott Kazmir and  Brian Matusz to soften the blow if Mike Minor's should problems are more serious. Unless disaster strikes the Bay Area, the Giants are the cream of the crop in the NL West and possible the National League.

Could there be an MVP and Cy Young winner in San Francisco?

#2 Arizona Diamondbacks (85-77) : After a disappointing year the Diamondbacks are back to take one more shot at the NL West. Management retained the strength of their team by resisting the urge to trade away Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, Gio Gonzalez, and Domonic Brown. They added developing slugger Matt Adams in a deal with Houston, and made small free agency moves like re-signing closer Jim Johnson and Ian Kennedy. With their current roster and contract situation, this is probably it for the Diamondbacks before they will need to rebuild. They took a major hit during the spring when Patrick Corbin tore his UCL and ended his season. They might make the playoffs, but if they drag behind the pack look for management to be busy during the trade deadline.

Can Arizona's big three make it back to the playoffs?

#3 Los Angeles Dodgers (81-81) : The Dodgers have moved a few big names out of Los Angeles, mainly Josh Hamilton, but big-money slugger Prince Fielder came back to fill the void. There isn't a whole lot beyond Fielder, but the Dodgers do have a number of high-upside players. Danny Espinosa should be able to bounce back after a terrible 2013 season, and 2B Alexander Guerrero has 20+HR upside even though he may start the season in the minors. The rotation is headlined by Ervin Santana, but beyond him things could be bleak before the 9th inning where the resurgent Fernando Rodney reigns. The Padres could easily pass the Dodgers if they aren't stricken with injuries, but neither team is really built to challenge for the NL West title.

Fielder and Rodney may be the only stars in LA this season.

#4 San Diego Padres (75-87) : At one point during the winter the Padres looked poised to push the Diamondbacks aside and make a run for the wild card, but management went another way and began dismantling the team. What's left is an aging veteran heavy squad with guys like Paul Konerko (38), Bobby Abreu (40), Rafael Furcal (36), and Aramis Ramirez (35). These vets all seem to have just enough in the tank for another go, but it's hard to tell if that 'go' is 162 games or closer to 120. The Padres biggest weakness will be it's pitching staff, outside of the reliable Joe Nathan at closer their rotation is full of high priced reclamation projects. Yovani Gallardo was traded away, Josh Beckett has lost his shine, Johan Santana and Dontrelle Willis are basically on their way out. This roster, nearly maxing the Padres salary, is practically all but gone after 2015 so the Padres should be a huge player in free agency. This season they should put up a fight, but the second half will probably feature a number of minor league call-ups and missed games.

If the Padres can hold a lead into the 9th they should be fine.

#5 Colorado Rockies (70-92) : The Rockies are not in a good place, and don't have many stars to anchor their lineup. The team features depth at every position, but bad contracts are weighing this team down and limited their free agency moves. Troy Tulowitzki and Allen Craig headline this roster, with Tulowitzki making $11.9 million a year, but the contracts of Bronson Arroyo ($14.0 million), Heath Bell ($14.0 million), and Matt Garza ($10.0 million) have sunk their payroll. Luckily for the Rockies all three of those contracts will be gone by 2015, so they should be in better shape soon. Beyond Arroyo and Garza the pitching staff is very thin, with the only bright spot being the hard tossing Rex Brothers who should be their closer of the future.

It could be a long season for the Rockies' stars.

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