Thursday, May 28, 2015

2015 Season - Down On The Farm (April-May)

A deluge of prospects hit the desert this offseason with so many MLB regulars packing their bags and heading elsewhere. The biggest changes occurred with the hitters acquired, perhaps the future of the franchise will arise between Jesse Winker, Austin Meadows, and Michael Taylor. Will Jake Lamb regress or become the next Paul Goldschmidt? Can Braden Shipley, Aaron Blair, and Touki Toussaint form a three headed monster on the mound? Nobody knows for sure, but it's going to be fun finding out.

A few minor changes, no pun intended, happened toward the end of 2014 as minor league affiliate contracts expired and found new parent organizations. Luckily for the Diamondbacks only one of the lower affiliates moved on to other organizations.

Triple-A : Reno Aces (Pacific Coast League) - Unchanged
Double-A : Mobile BayBears (Southern League) - Unchanged
Class-A Advanced : Visalia Rawhide (California League) - Unchanged
Class-A : Kane County Cougars (Midwest League) - Replaces South Bend
Class-A Short : Hillsboro Hops (Northwest League) - Unchanged
Rookie : Missoula Osprey (Pioneer League) - Unchanged
Rookie : AZL Diamondbacks (Arizona League) - Unchanged

Position, Player Name (Sickels Grade, Current MiLB Level) 

OF, Jesse Winker (Grade : A-, Double-A Mobile)

The 21-year old outfielder hit .317/.426/.580 in 53 games the California League, but struggled to a .208/.326/.351 slash line in an injury shortened stint in Double-A. Winker rebounded from his wrist injury during the Arizona Fall League (.338/.440/.559) and looks promising heading into 2015. Winker doesn't display more than average power, but his outstanding plate discipline and feel for hitting should help him produce going forward. Hopeful comparison is a Joey Votto type career, but he's still young so it could go either way.


OF, Austin Meadows (Grade : B+, Class-A Advanced Visalia)

One of Arizona's best new prospects hit .322/.388/.486 in 146 at-bats in Class-A Short during 2014. Was slowed by nagging injuries during the first part of the season, so most observers expect a much better 2015. Meadows displays strong on-base skills, hits for average, and shows the potential for at least moderate power. Defensively he needs some work, but he has the tools to play center. A healthy 2015 could see his stock rise, but at 19 he is probably still far away from the majors.

OF, Michael Taylor (Grade : B+, Triple-A Reno)

The centerpiece of the Matt Adams trade with Seattle, toolsy outfielder hit .313/.396/.539 in Double-A with 34 steals, plays excellent defense from center field. Physical tools have always been there and he’s taken several steps forward over the past few seasons. Probably won't hit .300+ down the road, but his power-speed-defense combo has too much potential to worry about batting average right now. Arizona coaches are hoping they have a potential 20-30 upside guy who will be around for quite some time, still just 23.



RHP, Braden Shipley (Grade : B+, Double-A Mobile)

Let the Shipley-Blair debate begin! Shipley had a good 2014 season with a 3.86 ERA and 127/42 K/BB in 126 innings through three levels. Still projects as a #3 starter, similar stuff to Blair with low/mid-90s heat, good changeup, good curve. Shows better command and athleticism than Blair, still has time to improve his stock at 22 years old.


RHP, Aaron Blair (Grade : B+, Double-A Mobile)

Basically the same age as Shipley, posted similar numbers (3.56 ERA, 171/51 K/B in 154 innings) through three levels. Flashes superior dominance numbers, which is why some have him over Shipley. Curveball has progressed to compliment his already excellent fastball/change combination. Also profiles as a future #3 starter, and like Shipley still has time to improve at 22 years-old.


OF, Billy McKinney (Grade : B, Class-A Advanced Visalia)

McKinney bounced around a little in 2014, going from Oakland to Seattle to Toronto to Chicago before landing in Arizona during the offseason. He is likely the least heralded of Arizona's incoming OF class, but at age 20 he hit .301/.390/.432 in the more difficult Florida State League after a slow start to the year for Oakland. Doesn’t have the tools of the guys ranked ahead of him but his instincts draw consistent praise. He also has a long track record of impressing scouts and coaches with his approach, so he does have a decent shot of outperforming his projections.


RHP, Touki Toussaint (Grade : B, Class-A Kane County)

2014 1st round pick, posted 8.48 ERA with 32/18 K/BB in first 29 pro innings. Like Shipley shows amazing athleticism with mid-90s heat. Stand out trait is having of the best curveballs to come out of the high school ranks since Bert Blyleven. Still raw, newer to baseball after playing soccer since youth, but he could develop into anything from an Ace to a Double-A burnout. Has potential to be the best pitcher in Arizona's system.


2B, Eddie Rosario (Grade : B-, Triple-A Reno)

Rosario finally joined the Diamondbacks organization after a close call in 2014, but he's almost as talented as he is risky. Tools are not as robust as other top prospects, but up until 2014 he’s always hit very, very well. He has shown impressive instincts and on-field effort which helps all of his tools play up, but a drug suspension in 2014 hurt his stock with observers. Rosario also struggled to adjust to Double-A pitching after two very good seasons in 2012 and 2013 from Rookie to Class-A Advanced. Perhaps a second stint in Double-A will earn him a trip to Reno or a late September call up.

3B, Jake Lamb (Grade : B-, Triple-A Reno)

Lamb is an interesting player who may need to improve quickly before coaches change their minds. Annihilated minor league pitching (.321/.406/.553 in his career) and defends well from the hot corner. He was rushed to the majors after a hot start to 2014 and struggled, hitting .230/.263/.373 in 126 at-bats. Showed good control of the strike zone in the minors, but it got away from him in the majors, experienced pitchers were able to exploit his aggression and find holes in his swing. Will probably be given a chance to stick in the majors, but if he flounders the organization may move on from him and give other prospects a shot. 2015 will be a big year for him, for better or for worse.

RHP, Alex Colome (Grade : B-, Triple-A Reno)

Now 26 and starting to suffer from prospect fatigue, but it's looking like this could be his last shot at a rotation spot. His stuff has always been good, but his command and durability have always been questioned. Could be headed to the bullpen if he doesn't put it together soon.

RHP, Matt Barnes (Grade : B-, Triple-A Reno)

Barnes, an organizational favorite for some time, is starting to lose his shine. At age 24 he posted a 3.95 ERA with 103/46 K/BB in 128 innings in Triple-A. He struggled with shoulder trouble early in the season but got over it. Coaches are becoming split on if he will be more of a reliever than a starter. Still shows a good fastball and change-up, but his breaking stuff remains erratic. Barnes will probably get a shot at some point this season, but he is approaching the risk of becoming a Quadruple-A guy since he doesn't have much left to prove in the minors.

3B, Patrick Kivlehan (Grade : B-, Triple-A Reno)

The 25-year old came over in the Arrieta trade with San Francisco, and could be closer to the majors than most think. He hit .295/.363/.507 with 20 homers, 56 walks, 110 strikeouts in 519 at-bats between High-A and Double-A. The former Rutgers football player has improved his baseball skills rapidly, but here are still questions about defense and ability to maintain OBP/BA against quality pitching. Will start the year in Double-A with a solid chance of seeing some time at Triple-A Reno.

RHP, Michael Lorenzen (Grade : B-, Triple-A Reno)

Lorenzen came over in the Jake Arrieta trade with San Francisco after posting a 3.13 ERA with 84/44 K/BB in 121 innings in 2014. Features a hard sinker and promising slider, but his change-up needs work to elevate himself beyond mid-rotation potential. Potential to be more dominant in relief.

LHP, Cody Reed (Grade : B-, Rookie Missoula)

2014 2nd round pick better known for his size, had excellent pro debut (2.20 ERA with 40/12 K/BB in 33 innings) and shows signs of improvement. Three pitch mix, fastball, slider, change, velocity varies but he was excellent overall in his debut. Also projects as a #3 starter, but will need to work on his physique in the long run.

RHP, Nick Travieso (Grade : B-, Class-A Advanced Visalia)

Another member of the Arrieta trade, just recently turned 21. Posted 3.03 ERA with 14-5 record, 114/44 K/BB in 143 innings in Low-A after repeating the league. Velocity has recovered after dropping in 2013, a disappointing season for him. Has shown some progression with his slider and change-up. Like his trade partner Lorenzen he shows mid-rotation possibility with a chance at being more dominant if used in relief role.

OF, Justin Williams (Grade : B-, Class-A Kane County)


Williams hit .351/.403/.467 between Pioneer and Midwest Leagues in 2014 at the age of 18. Was supposed to be very raw when drafted in second round from a Louisiana high school in ’13 but has shown better-than-expected hitting skills to go with excellent raw power. Defense is steadily improving, but an impatient approach is slowing his development. If he can make the necessary adjustments as he moves up he could develop into a high upside player.


SS, Luis Sardinas (Grade : C+, Triple-A Reno)

Sardinas has dropped a little on the grading scale after starting 2014 at B-, but this is probably due to his hitting turning out as expected. Mostly seen as a defense-first contact hitter he batted .261/.303/.313 in 115 at-bats in his major league debut during the 2014 season. He has Aaron Hill blocking him for a regular spot, but if he continues to develop as a hitter he could be a regular by 2016. Diamondbacks coaching staff is also hoping he can return to stealing 30+ bases, as he did in Class-A Advanced and Double-A in 2012 and 2013, he bounced between Triple-A and the majors last season so his 2014 SB total is probably not an indication of his potential.

C, Peter O'Brien (Grade : C+, Triple-A Reno)

O'Brien takes a hit due to the uncertainty behind his final position. Has the tools to catch, but lacks polish and needs to improve if he's going to stay behind the plate. Flashed some serious power in 2014, hit .271/.316/.594 with 34 homers, 21 walks, 111 strikeouts in 399 at-bats between Yankees and Diamondbacks systems. He currently has an aggressive approach that could cut into OBP/batting average against better pitching. Very dangerous when he gets something hittable, but as he moves closer to the majors he won't see as many hittable balls. If he can stick at Catcher, could be extremely valuable, but a move to 1B would have him stuck behind Paul Goldschmidt. Not good.

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