Tuesday, June 16, 2015

2015 MLB Farm System Rankings

SCOTTSDALE - Spring Training is long gone and the season is well under way. The vast majority of teams aren't in the running for a title this season, so attention turns to the future and a (mostly) unbiased look at the league's crop of future stars.

Ranking Rational

All 30 MLB teams have been judged based on the strength of their Top 10 prospects as graded by a combination of John Sickels at Minor League Ball, Baseball America, and Rich Wilson at Prospect 361. Each grade has been assigned a numerical value similar to the Baseball America grading system. A panel of experts used cutting edge advanced metrics to look past the Top 10 to rank systems who ended up with similar scores.
This does not take into account future potential, just current grade, and only includes players who have not exceeded their rookie limits yet. Rusney Castillo and Yasmany Tomas aren't really thought of as prospects, but they haven't exceeded rookie limits yet, so for the sake of this exercise they are considered prospects.

Many thanks to Ed (Giants) and Karsten (Twins) for starting this and collaborating on the team by team analysis.

Points were totaled to give us an idea on a basic 1-30, then the three of us took a look at all of the systems and ranked them 1-30 based on the points and prospects outside of the Top 10. A number of teams sported depth that had to be considered, but calculating beyond the Top 10 was a Herculean task. The three ranking sets were averaged to form the final composite ranking.


2015 MLB Farm System Rankings
Rank - Team Name / Best Prospect (Grade)

30 - Toronto Blue Jays / C Gabriel Cena (C)

The Blue Jays philosophy, since current ownership took over in 2008, has been mainly to build from quality major leaguers and this has led to almost all relevant prospects being shipped away. The problem is, the Blue Jays are in the toughest division and although they have a good major league team every year, it has never been enough to win a title of any kind. The Blue Jays are looking strong again on paper going into the 2015 season, but long-term, their top prospect is an international signing from 2010 that hit .259 in rookie ball last year. They boast no prospects from another organizations. There is some potential here with some prospects, but their highest draft pick from last year is a 3rd rounder. Overall, there's just not enough here to make this system relevant right now.

29 - Cleveland Indians / 1B Nellie Rodriguez (C+)

Things are not looking good in Cleveland, and it's going to take some time and effort to rebuild this system. A mass exodus of prospects in exchange for major leaguers has left the lower levels of this organization bereft of high-end talent.

28 - Tampa Bay Rays / OF Scott Schebler (B-)


Although they rank towards the bottom, they have been able to compete for a World Series every year since 2012 by trading away their farm for major league pieces. This can only last for so long however, and new management seems committed to replenishing the minor league system for long-term success. OF Scott Schebler is the only B grade guy here, but a good one. He has combined for 55 homers and 177 RBI’s the past two years in Class-A and Double-A.

27 - Colorado Rockies / 2B Forrest Wall (B-)


The Rockies have been supplemented by a couple of good drafts recently, but the farm has been used primarily to acquire MLB pieces. 2B Forrest Wall and a few infield prospects still remain to provide a glimpse of hope for the future. There doesn't seem to be any sense of urgency from Colorado, as the farm will most likely continue to be used as a means to an end rather than an end in itself, which isn't always a bad thing.

26 - San Francisco Giants / OF Rusney Castillo (A-)



Top heavy with Castillo as really the only 'Top', the Giants have sold it all for the prize. Their hopes are for another solid if not spectacular draft to restock their system. There are a few high-upside players down in the lower minors like OF Mikey Edie and RHP Logan Webb. Even former overall #1 pick SS Tim Beckham seems to be doing something up in the majors.

25 - Oakland Athletics / RHP Tyler Kolek (B+)

Hard throwing 2014 draftee Tyler Kolek headlines one of the most trade decimated systems in all of baseball. The A's GM might want to get on the phone with Cleveland and discuss how they are going to rebuild their system, because things don't look to great at the moment. Oakland is well known for finding diamonds in the rough, but it's going to be really rough going forward.

24 - Miami Marlins / SS Richard Urena (B-)

A clear victim of previous owners' misuse and abuse, this is the thinnest of the NL East. Though there are a few bright spots on the offensive side of the ball like SS Richard Urena, it's going to take some conscious moves and drafts to get the farm back to being a strength.

23 - Detroit Tigers / OF Dwight Smith, Jr. (B-)


Recent trades have depleted this system, but the 2013 and 2014 draft helped them move up the standings. RHP Noah Syndergaard was the Tigers' crown jewel prior to a recent trade. Hanging on to their own prospects has helped them stay afloat.

22 - Chicago Cubs / 3B Kris Bryant (A)

‘Going for it’. That’s the mantra of the Cubs in recent months, and the roster assembled with that farm is impressive. They’ve sold their farm down to 3B Kris Bryant and a bunch of role players. A few players slated to make a splash in 2015 like 3B Johnny Urshela, RHP Nick Tropeano, and Bryant have upside that could provide immediate dividends, but after them it’s a waiting game until the next draft class comes up.

21 - Philadelphia Phillies / OF Hunter Renfroe (B)


The Phillies land low on the list despite a good mix of high-floor and high-upside prospects throughout the system. Led by OF Hunter Renfroe this system could get much stronger with some growth from the younger guys like RHP Sean Reid-Foley in 2015

20 - Washington Nationals / RHP Noah Syndergaard (A-)


Top 50 prospects RHP Noah Syndergaard and RHP Reynaldo Lopez lead the group, but there's some depth here, too. The Nationals have spent considerable time and prospect currency making their MLB squad one of the best in the league, so the farm system is a little thin. Despite this, there are lots of high-floor guys like SS Ketel Marte, SS Matt Duffy, and OF Billy Burns to bank on as trade bait as the season progresses.

19 - Cincinnati Reds / LHP Kyle Freeland (A-)

The Reds have been consistently one of the best teams in the league, including a stretch from 2009 to 2013 of five straight division titles. They have never won a National League Pennant though, and the farm system may be to blame. As a team that mostly relies their own drafted players it has always been a decent system, but they have not been able to produce elite talent need to go beyond a division title. The Reds have a lot of talent on the major league roster and a ton of cap space, so guys like LHP Kyle Freeland they could make the jump to being one of the elite teams very quickly. They might be there already with six straight postseason appearances, but a pennant or World Series title would seal it.

18 - Seattle Mariners / RHP Jon Gray (A-)

Do you like pitching? The Mariners system is just at the upper end of the middle tier, but boy do they have some interesting arms. Jon Gray and Giants 2014 draft pick RHP Tyler Beede headline a future rotation well suited to taking advantage of Safeco Field. They also feature OF Raimel Tapia who could sneak up the rankings with his power-speed combo. The Mariners system is one of the most underrated systems in the league, and is on the rise quickly.

17 - LA Dodgers / 3B DJ Peterson (B+)


This system isn't packed with a lot of elite prospect talent besides 3B DJ Peterson, but that isn't going to be a problem for them. They feature a lot of B grade range prospects with a mix of interesting high ceiling and high floor players. The Dodgers seem to get another IFA player every year that helps out the system tremendously.

16 - Chicago White Sox / OF Jorge Soler (A)

The South Siders are extremely top heavy with two of the best prospects in baseball, Jorge Soler and RHP Carlos Rodon, but things fall off pretty quickly near the bottom of the Top 10. This system is currently suffering from some serious depth issues with few prospects of note outside the Top 10. The White Sox do seem to have a GM committed to building a competitive team though. We'll see what happens in the near future with guys like Rodon and Soler already major league ready.

15 - Houston Astros / SS Carlos Correa (A)

The Astros have spent the last few years trying to rebuild their system through trades, and it has paid off. Landing Carlos Correa, potentially the best prospect in baseball, via the 2012 draft helps as well. This system's Top 10 boasts 100% home grown talent with depth at numerous positions on and off the mound.

14 - New York Yankees / RHP Archie Bradley (A-)


The New York Yankees, thanks to the draft and the IFA market, have developed one of the deepest farms in the league. Their big league team already consists of young stars such as OF Mike Trout and OF Wil Myers, but their deep farm system gives them a flowing pool of talent to pad out their major league roster. They have some great prospects at the top, such as RHP Archie Bradley, that should make this Yankee team a force for a long time.


13 - Baltimore Orioles / RHP Dylan Bundy (A-)


The Orioles have a very strong farm system and a GM with a committed approach of building with youth that is starting to pay off at the major league level. The Orioles don't haven't made many deals involving their own farm system and that is shown with guys like 3B Manny Machado and RHP Kevin Gausman at the major league level. RHP Dylan Bundy is quickly getting ready to join them. Add in some recent trade returns like LHP Julio Urias and SS Corey Seager and the Orioles have lots of prospects ready to join the graduated ranks. The one down fall with the system is its depth, as it drops off fairly quickly. Lots of guys in the C grade range but nothing really that stands out beyond the first six to ten prospects.

12 - New York Mets / 2B Dilson Herrera (B+)


Depth throughout the system leaves the Mets with a solid group. Led by 2B Dilson Herrera and LHP Steven Matz, their homegrown talent is prevalent and a testament to a team that has been through a number of owners. Strong outfield players like OF Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, and C Kevin Plawecki combined to give New York three  Top 100 prospects and great balance in the minors.

11 - Atlanta Braves / RHP Lucas Giolito (A)


With two to four  Top100 prospects on the team, some considerable depth throughout the Top 20 team prospects, and a strong Top 15 prospect in Lucas Giolito, the Braves are the cream of the NL East crop. Ozhaino Albies is a great guy to dream on, and Owens and Jake Thompson finish up a formidable three-headed monster of SP.

10 - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim / RHP Andrew Heaney (A-)

This system did not appear to be in good standing almost a year ago, but trades and the 2014 draft have really improved their profile. Andrew Heaney came over in a trade with the Brewers and top pitching prospect LHP Sean Newcomb landed in LA thanks to the 2014 draft. Add in the IFA process (Roberto Baldoquin) and this system looks very good, if they can find Matt Shoemaker 2.0 they could be in excellent shape.

9 - Pittsburgh Pirates / RHP Tyler Glasnow (A)

Glasnow is my favorite pitching prospect. Something about this kid makes me think he'll be great, maybe it's the devastating hammer or the explosive fastball--or both? Just a dominate anchor for this Pirates farm which features almost nothing but athletic, dynamic players. Devon Travis is already tearing up the majors, and Frazier/Bell/Pompey all represent some special talent running around in the OF. The farm also consists of a dozen or so strong IRL Pittsburgh specs, which is finally working out for the IRL Pirates. All these athletes will come up in due time and help make the NL Central one of the best divisions in this league.

8 - Minnesota Twins / OF Joc Pederson (B+)

The Twins came in 2nd in the AL Central, but that's still nothing to scoff at. Minnesota lacks a dominant 'wow' prospect, but it does feature an incredibly deep system with talent at numerous positions. Joc Pederson, who will likely make his way to the majors this year, is without a doubt the system's best prospect. Two very young players, 2014 1st rounder Alex Jackson and Franklin Barreto, could climb the rankings next season, so this system can only get better. A good mix of in-house and trade prospects have this team looking like a title contender in the coming years.

7 - San Diego Padres / LHP Daniel Norris (A-)

If you were asked to name the Top 10 systems without looking at the prospects, you probably wouldn’t have come up with the Padres. After tearing their team down this organization has quietly built one of the best farm systems in all of baseball. The Padres have some very well known prospects in Daniel Norris and Jose Pereza, with A.J. Cole and Jose Berrios starting to earn some buzz. They also sport a very balanced, and very MLB ready, Top 10. Norris, Pereza, and C J.T. Realmuto look like they might get some time in The Show. A good mix of infielders and pitching makes this a tough system to beat, only minor weakness is a lack of top end OF prospects.

6 - Arizona Diamondbacks / OF Jesse Winker (A-)

The Diamondbacks would have been much lower on this list last year, but after selling off most of their team and getting a visit from the IFA fairy they find themselves with one of the best farm systems in the majors. This doesn't even take Cuban RHP Yoan Lopez into consideration, so there is an argument to be made to move them up.

5 - Texas Rangers / OF Byron Buxton (A)

If you are looking for a system with real 'wow' factor, it's the Rangers. The oft-injured but supremely talented Byron Buxton sits atop a very balanced Top 10 with some tremendous upside. 3B Joey Gallo just hit three home runs while you read the first two sentences of this summary, and if he can cut down on the strikeouts this system could produce two of the most exciting players in baseball. This system would have ranked even higher had 2B Rougned Odor not been forced into major league playing time in 2014, but for those who love Rougned they won't have to wait long before Rougned Odor takes his place. Yes, you read that correctly, Rougned's younger brother Rougned was also signed by the Rangers and for some reason is also named Rougned.

4 - Milwaukee Brewers / 3B Miguel Sano (A-)

The most impressive thing about the Brewers is how young and well-proportioned their MLB team is already. Then when you notice their farm is insanely deep with significant players at the top, you can see how 2017 (the year Brewers has reported to be his year) is going to be a fun year to watch the Crew. There are corner infielders, middle infielders, catchers and outfielders sprinkled in the top-10, with a few key pitching prospects like Beede, Kolek, and Justus Sheffield throwing hard with HUGE upside forming a formidable base. Sano will most likely move off of 3B, as will Schwarber from C, but both have gargantuan power. Arcia and Monte Harrison provide speed and athleticism, even if they're a bit farther away. Brewers can wait and see how his farm pans out or sell it to make his MLB team even better, but either way, he's created a great resource for future success.

3 - Boston Red Sox / 2B Yoan Moncada (A-)

Another really deep system with some top-heavy talent. The IFA addition of Cuban wunderkind (or is it niƱo maravilla?) Yoan Moncada pushed this system up the rankings. The only possible knock, and it’s small, is the lack of depth on offense and the outfield. Moncada and McMahon could be infield studs, but this system relies on the strength of it’s potential rotation. High upside is the name of the game with former 1st overall pick Mark Appel (who’s running out of time to impress), and former Royals draft pick Kyle Zimmer.

2 - St. Louis Cardinals / SS Francisco Lindor (A)

Cardinals have slowly built one of the best farms in this league. With the internal options constantly presenting themselves from the IRL Cardinals and a few savvy moves to pick up cornerstone pieces like Lindor and Sanchez, this farm is both deep and top-heavy. Lindor looks to be a star that'll start shining at some point in 2015, even if he might not have the ceiling of a Addison Russell or Carlos Correa, he's almost sure to be a top-15 fantasy SS. The farm is diverse and deep, as well. There are no glaring holes when you look around at the positions represented except maybe 1B. Guys like Sanchez and McCullers are already producing in the Majors, fellas like Mazara and Alfaro are a little further away, and with a fantastic pitching staff and only a few missing pieces from the lineup, this squad looks good going into 2016.

1 - Kansas City Royals / SS Addison Russell (A)

This wasn't even close, in fact the Royals farm system is so deep that their 11-20 prospects would have finished 17th on this list if they were a separate team. Four Grade A prospects, including one of the Top 5 in all of baseball, helped put the Royals on top. Their incredible depth at just about every position on the diamond and litany of prospects added through trades is the key to their success, this system could form a monster in the next five years.

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