With the season over and the Winter Meetings wrapping up we have a good look at the current shape of the Diamondbacks farm system. Not sure if everyone will be around in January, but things look good.
Position, Player Name (Sickels Grade, Current MiLB Level)
RHP Jon Gray (Grade : A-, Triple-A Reno)
August call up went well after gutting out a decent season in Reno. Looks like he has nothing left to prove in the minors and should leave 2016 Spring Training with a spot in the Diamondbacks rotation.
OF, Jesse Winker (Grade : A-, Double-A Mobile)
Winker put a cherry on top of his 2015 season with a serious hot streak. He slashed .312/.423/.524 in his final 54 games at Mobile, if he continues hitting like that he should be in the majors soon.
OF, Austin Meadows (Grade : B+, Double-A Mobile)
Did just about everything you could want aside from hit for power. Made his way through Class-A Advanced to finish the season with six games in Mobile. Hit .310 and swiped 21 bases, but only hit 7HR on his way to a good-not-great season. Still has scouts drooling over him, still just 20, but he's going to be prone to prospect fatigue if he doesn't drive more balls out of the park.
RHP, Braden Shipley (Grade : B+, Double-A Mobile)
Finished season well after a really rocky start to the season, but failed to get promoted to Reno. Not a deal breaker, but it would have been nice to see him face more advanced hitting. Now behind Aaron Blair as the Diamondbacks #3 pitching prospect.
RHP, Aaron Blair (Grade : B+, Triple-A Reno)
Ended the season with a haymaker in the Blair-Shipley battle, now firmly considered the better of the two. Looked really good at Mobile and Reno, which is quite a feat considering the hitter friendly PCL. Should see the majors in 2016 at some point if not from the start, won't have anyone blocking him on the MLB roster if he shows signs of being ready.
OF, Raimel Tapia (Grade : B, Class-A Advanced Visalia)
Quickly becoming one of Arizona's most exciting players. Really good year at the plate and could develop more power in the coming seasons, an improved approach on defense has also increased his stock.
OF, Billy McKinney (Grade : B, Double-A Mobile)
Broken knee, out for the season. Had an amazing season in Class-A Advanced but lost some steam in Mobile. Still very young and a favorite of the organization.
RHP, Jeff Hoffman (Grade : B, Double-A Mobile)
Tommy John recovery, pitched 72 inning between Visalia and Mobile. Slowly putting his injury behind him, 2016 will be key to his development.
RHP, Touki Toussaint (Grade : B, Class-A Kane County)
Toussaint is probably the Diamondbacks most exciting pitching prospect. He has had some incredible highs to go with some ugly lows, but his talent is such that scouts can't stop talking about him. He is still young and doesn't have the experience most do, so it's hard to give up on someone like him so quickly. He has the upside of a #2 starter, but he could just as likely flame out before getting to Reno.
RHP, Alex Colome (Grade : B-, MLB)
Colome finished the year by exceeding rookie limits with a mix of starting and relieving. Not sure where he ends up going forward, but he was much better out of the pen. 2016 will be an interesting year for him.
RHP, Matt Barnes (Grade : B-, MLB)
Exceeded rookie limits, looks destined for a role out of the bullpen.
3B, Patrick Kivlehan (Grade : B-, Triple-A Reno)
Kivelehan is looking like one of Arizona's most difficult players. He has the athleticism you look for, a good power / speed combo, but he was just wrecked by Triple-A pitching. He gutted out 17HR and 13SB while batting a disappointing .239, and it's hard to tell where he fits in.
LHP, Cody Reed (Grade : B-, Class-A Short Hillsboro)
Finished with a good not great season, but at 19 he still has room to grow. Showed developing secondary pitches and good command.
RHP, Nick Travieso (Grade : B-, Class-A Advanced Visalia)
Finished the season well, recovered from being hit by a line drive in June. Showing good progress and should start the 2016 season in Mobile.
OF, Justin Williams (Grade : B-, Class-A Kane County)
Good season in Low-A at 19, scouting reports still point to long term potential. Still shows raw power and could end up being a very good OF.
SS, Luis Sardinas (Grade : C+, Triple-A Reno)
Bounced around some more, played enough to exceed rookie limits and will not longer be listed here. Starting to look like a defense-only utility man, unless he starts hitting he's always at risk of being DFA'd.
C, Peter O'Brien (Grade : C+, Triple-A Reno)
Arizona's biggest problem, but hopefully a good one to have. O'Brien spent the vast majority of 2015 in Reno, and in all that time he crushed 26HR and didn't see a pitch he didn't like. The 26HR and 107RBI with a .284BA look really good, but when paired with a whopping 124SO it doesn't look so good. Has moved to the OF, which is probably his path to the majors, but the plate discipline could be an issue.
Thursday, December 10, 2015
Thursday, November 5, 2015
2015 Season Report (End of Season)
PHOENIX - The regular season has finally come to a close, and the Arizona Diamondbacks have not made the playoffs. It isn't a surprise to anyone, especially management, but what is a surprise is that they finished just about where they did in 2014. It's hard to understand why a team that was trying to make the playoffs did as well as one being stripped for parts, but that's just baseball. Finishing 18th at 79-83 isn't all that bad, but ownership was probably shooting for a higher draft slot.
The Arizona Goldschmidts
Surprise, Paul Goldschmidt is really good. Offensively the Diamondbacks were plagued with surprisingly bad seasons (Chris Owings, Jake Lamb, J.J. Hardy) and blessed by surprisingly good ones (David Peralta, Eddie Rosario, Ender Inciarte) and befuddled by ones in the middle (Yasmany Tomas). The one constant was Goldschmidt, who put up MVP numbers but is likely to be overshadowed by the Nationals' Bryce Harper. If not for the efforts of Goldschmidt, this team could have been in contention for a Top 5 draft pick.
Corbin's Return
The silver lining for this season on the mound was the return of Patrick Corbin. After missing 2014 to Tommy John surgery and sitting out nearly half of 2015, Corbin appears to have returned to his pre-injury level of performance. With the avalanche of injuries and trades that hit the rotation, it's amazing that the Diamondbacks had anyone to throw out on the mound by the end of the season.
Hello, Prospects
If you ignore Goldschmidt's awesomeness and Corbin's return from injury the biggest 2015 story line was the influx of high end prospects. The addition of Jesse Winker, Jon Gray, Austin Meadows, and Raimel Tapia give Diamondbacks fans something to look forward to. A number of their best prospects made it to the majors (Eddie Rosario, Michael Taylor, Michael Lorenzen) so the future is already starting to take shape.
2015 ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS AWARDS
MVP
1B Paul Goldschmidt (103R, 33HR, 110RBI, 21SB, .321BA)
This one is pretty easy, and as long as he's manning 1B it probably won't change. Even an injury shortened 2014 had him firmly in the MVP chair. Goldschmidt led the team in all offensive categories.
ROY
CF Michael Taylor (49R, 14HR, 63RBI, 16SB, .0229BA)
Taylor muscled his way into a crowded outfield situation and trumped the Diamondbacks big money "rookie" signing (Yasmany Tomas) while looking like a solid piece of the team's future. While he didn't hit for average the team is hoping he can improve with more major league experience.
Randy Johnson Award (Best Pitcher)
SP Patrick Corbin (6W, 78K, 3.60ERA, 1.27WHIP)
Really low bar on this one, so low that someone who basically missed half the season took this one home without too much competition. Gio Gonzalez completely melted down and passed the 'Ace' moniker on to Corbin. A few bad late season outings hurt Corbin's ERA/WHIP, but overall he looked good coming back from Tommy John surgery.
The Arizona Goldschmidts
Goldschmidt hits the market after the 2016 season.
Surprise, Paul Goldschmidt is really good. Offensively the Diamondbacks were plagued with surprisingly bad seasons (Chris Owings, Jake Lamb, J.J. Hardy) and blessed by surprisingly good ones (David Peralta, Eddie Rosario, Ender Inciarte) and befuddled by ones in the middle (Yasmany Tomas). The one constant was Goldschmidt, who put up MVP numbers but is likely to be overshadowed by the Nationals' Bryce Harper. If not for the efforts of Goldschmidt, this team could have been in contention for a Top 5 draft pick.
Corbin's Return
The silver lining for this season on the mound was the return of Patrick Corbin. After missing 2014 to Tommy John surgery and sitting out nearly half of 2015, Corbin appears to have returned to his pre-injury level of performance. With the avalanche of injuries and trades that hit the rotation, it's amazing that the Diamondbacks had anyone to throw out on the mound by the end of the season.
Hello, Prospects
Tapia joins a loaded OF class.
If you ignore Goldschmidt's awesomeness and Corbin's return from injury the biggest 2015 story line was the influx of high end prospects. The addition of Jesse Winker, Jon Gray, Austin Meadows, and Raimel Tapia give Diamondbacks fans something to look forward to. A number of their best prospects made it to the majors (Eddie Rosario, Michael Taylor, Michael Lorenzen) so the future is already starting to take shape.
2015 ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS AWARDS
MVP
1B Paul Goldschmidt (103R, 33HR, 110RBI, 21SB, .321BA)
This one is pretty easy, and as long as he's manning 1B it probably won't change. Even an injury shortened 2014 had him firmly in the MVP chair. Goldschmidt led the team in all offensive categories.
ROY
Taylor might be the future of CF.
CF Michael Taylor (49R, 14HR, 63RBI, 16SB, .0229BA)
Taylor muscled his way into a crowded outfield situation and trumped the Diamondbacks big money "rookie" signing (Yasmany Tomas) while looking like a solid piece of the team's future. While he didn't hit for average the team is hoping he can improve with more major league experience.
Randy Johnson Award (Best Pitcher)
Corbin's return was promising for 2016.
SP Patrick Corbin (6W, 78K, 3.60ERA, 1.27WHIP)
Really low bar on this one, so low that someone who basically missed half the season took this one home without too much competition. Gio Gonzalez completely melted down and passed the 'Ace' moniker on to Corbin. A few bad late season outings hurt Corbin's ERA/WHIP, but overall he looked good coming back from Tommy John surgery.
Friday, August 7, 2015
2015 Season Report (100 Games)
PHOENIX -The Diamondbacks continue to limp toward a kind of baseball limbo, finishing 100 games just a hair below the middle of the league (16th) and firmly hovering around .500 baseball (50-50). An explanation is simple, just two words encompass how a team that has been mostly stripped for parts can stay close to .500; Paul. Goldschmidt.
Arizona's offense, which will henceforth just be called "Paul Goldshmidt", is essentially made up of Goldschmidt wrecking the league for his pleasure. Goldschmidt currently leads the Diamondbacks in... well, everything. He's hitting .339, with 67R, 22HR, 77RBI, and 17SB, which is far beyond anyone else on the team. He's also in the Top 5 for NL players in BA, HR, and RBI. Is there anything he can't do?
Ender Inciarte recently returned from the DL, so the Diamondbacks are going to have a bit of an OF log jam. Inciarte, David Peralta, Eddie Rosario, and Michael Taylor have all played well and look to have the OF covered. Jake Lamb, who isn't showing any power, is swapping DH and 3B duties with Yasmany Tomas (who also isn't showing any power).
The biggest story in Phoenix was the calling up of top pitching prospect Jon Gray. Gray would see his first big league action, but it wouldn't turn out all that well. Gray only lasted four inning, though he did strike out four hitters while allowing 2BB and 2ER. Patrick Corbin started his return well, winning twice and racking up 29K with a 3.21ERA and 1.00WHIP but he finished the period by getting rocked and failing to finish 2IP. Gio Gonzalez, who finds himself on the waiver wire, has righted his season a little. Some of his numbers look good (8W, 98K, 3.75ERA), but he 1.43WHIP really tells the tale of his season. With Jered Weaver still on a very expensive DL stint, this staff isn't going anywhere.
Arizona's offense, which will henceforth just be called "Paul Goldshmidt", is essentially made up of Goldschmidt wrecking the league for his pleasure. Goldschmidt currently leads the Diamondbacks in... well, everything. He's hitting .339, with 67R, 22HR, 77RBI, and 17SB, which is far beyond anyone else on the team. He's also in the Top 5 for NL players in BA, HR, and RBI. Is there anything he can't do?
Ender Inciarte recently returned from the DL, so the Diamondbacks are going to have a bit of an OF log jam. Inciarte, David Peralta, Eddie Rosario, and Michael Taylor have all played well and look to have the OF covered. Jake Lamb, who isn't showing any power, is swapping DH and 3B duties with Yasmany Tomas (who also isn't showing any power).
Is Gray a future ace?
The biggest story in Phoenix was the calling up of top pitching prospect Jon Gray. Gray would see his first big league action, but it wouldn't turn out all that well. Gray only lasted four inning, though he did strike out four hitters while allowing 2BB and 2ER. Patrick Corbin started his return well, winning twice and racking up 29K with a 3.21ERA and 1.00WHIP but he finished the period by getting rocked and failing to finish 2IP. Gio Gonzalez, who finds himself on the waiver wire, has righted his season a little. Some of his numbers look good (8W, 98K, 3.75ERA), but he 1.43WHIP really tells the tale of his season. With Jered Weaver still on a very expensive DL stint, this staff isn't going anywhere.
Sunday, August 2, 2015
2015 Season - Down On The Farm (June-July)
The previous deluge of prospects has recently been topped off with a smaller deluge of highly ranked prospects. The biggest name on the list was Jon Gray, a former #3 overall pick, and fans of the Reno Aces will enjoy having him. The MLB Draft has also added some names, most notably first round pick Dansby Swanson, but they will need time to establish themselves.
With the MLB roster slowly turning into warm bodies and expiring contracts, it looks like the future of the franchise is waiting in the minors.
Position, Player Name (Sickels Grade, Current MiLB Level)
RHP Jon Gray (Grade : A-, Triple-A Reno)
Gray is a unanimous Top 25 prospect, but he hasn't performed like one so far. He was awful to start 2014 in Double-A, but rebounded for a strong finish. He has had similar issue this season, now in Triple-A, but he has started to turn things around. The notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League isn't helping, but a good showing might see him promoted for a cup of coffee this year or perhaps a more permanent move in 2016.
OF, Jesse Winker (Grade : A-, Double-A Mobile)
Winker's second shot at Double-A ball isn't panning out as well as his 2014. He has had a painfully slow start after hitting 15HR in 2014. Hitting .266 with 5HR so far this season has left the Diamondbacks hoping for a serious rebound, if Winker is the future he needs to show more or the Diamondbacks might look to move on.
OF, Austin Meadows (Grade : B+, Class-A Advanced Visalia)
Meadows continues to confound scouts by just being a really good baseball player. Not that it's bad, but the expectations are that he will be great. He rakes, he shows excellent plate discipline, he defends well, but at 6'-3" 200 he should be hitting for more power. The 9th overall pick in the 2013 has everyone waiting to see if he ascends to the next level, at the very least he looks to be an MLB regular in the making.
OF, Michael Taylor (Grade : B+, MLB)
Currently moving back and forth between Reno and Phoenix, but it looks like Taylor is up for good. Has already exceeded rookie limits, so next season (and later this year) he won't find himself on this list. The 24-year old is currently hitting .241 with 6HR, 29RBI, and 8SB in 69 major league games.
RHP, Braden Shipley (Grade : B+, Double-A Mobile)
The Shipley-Blair debate may come to a close soon as Shipley struggles through his second go at Double-A. He hasn't looked sharp in 2015, and a bloated ERA/WHIP is proof. There might be something wrong, or he might just be working through some issues. His problems seem to stem from a dramatically lower K rate (6.2 compared to 8.1 in 2014) and a spike in hits. Low walk and HR rates are a good sign, but he needs to put it all together.
RHP, Aaron Blair (Grade : B+, Triple-A Reno)
Promoted to Triple-A after ripping through Double-A and leaving Shipley in the dust. Hasn't looked as dominant in Reno, but the Pacific Coast League is notoriously hitter friendly. His hit, walk, and HR rates have jumped but his K rate has done the same. Will have to see if Blair can right the ship and complete a season that started off well, has the opportunity to snag "Best Pitching Prospect" title if Shipley and Gray fail to rebound.
OF, Raimel Tapia (Grade : B, Class-A Advanced Visalia)
Tapia, a Top 50 prospect before the season, came over in a trade with the Mariners. The Diamondbacks have been trying to land him for some time, and they finally got him in exchange for a massive salary dump and Matt Cain. Tapia was signed by the Rockies out of the Dominican Republic at 17, and since then he has shown some considerable promise. The speedy OF has spent the entire season in Class-A Advanced hitting 8HR, 51RBI, with 19SB and a solid .331BA. There could be some power upside as he continues to develop, but his hit tool and base running ability are enough to get by right now.
OF, Billy McKinney (Grade : B, Double-A Mobile)
Started the year in Class-A Advanced and quickly moved to Double-A, still just 20 years old he could be a real sleeper waiting to break out. McKinney has played well defensively, especially out of RF where he boasts a 1.000 fielding percentage in 56 games, and hit well enough to impress the Diamondbacks. He struggled to hit in 2014 in Visalia, hitting .264, but hit .340 there to start 2015 which helped land his promotion. He won't be a star at the plate, but his approach continues to impress scouts and at 20 he can always get better.
RHP, Jeff Hoffman (Grade : B, Class-A Advanced Visalia)
Hoffman, a Top 100 prospect who came over in the Soria trade, is one of those high-upside risky moves that makes you look like a genius if it pans out and an idiot if it fails. Hoffman had Tommy John surgery prior to the 2014 draft, but that didn't seem to stop the Blue Jays from taking him 9th overall. He's opened his professional career in Class-A Advanced after a year off, and things aren't looking good. The exciting stuff, a fastball with life that cut in on righties, has lost it's excitement. Perhaps he's in a period of recovery, but if he can't regain his previous approach it will be difficult for him to stay on this list.
RHP, Touki Toussaint (Grade : B, Class-A Kane County)
Only an idiot would trade Toussaint for anything less than a King's ransom at this point. That being said, he's in a heated internal battle with fellow 2014 draft pick Cody Reed for the Diamondbacks most promising draft pick. At least for now, he's looking like a solid pick, despite the poor reports on his command, hopefully his curveball continues to be his best pitch with a future 70 grade. A 4-3 record so far with decent numbers isn't wowing anyone, but at 19 he has a lot of time to get better.
OF, Eddie Rosario (Grade : B-, MLB)
Rosario is in the same boat as Taylor as he passes rookie limits. He is having a similar season too, hitting .264 with 4HR, 20RBI, and 6SB from the outfield. Unless something changes, he looks to be an outfielder from now on.
3B, Jake Lamb (Grade : B-, MLB)
The 24-year old 3B has looked lost, injured, and exciting during the season. With Yasmany Tomas clearly unfit to hand the hot corner, it looks like the job is now Lamb's to lose. He has exceeded rookie limits while hitting .302 and showing very little power (2HR in 35 games). Hopefully a return from injury and the All-Star break will help him turn things around.
RHP, Alex Colome (Grade : B-, MLB)
Colome is at a crossroads this season, and for the most part it looks like he's being run over. Colome has started 13 games, and overall it hasn't been pretty. a 3-4 record with a 4.85ERA isn't encouraging. If Colome doesn't turn things around the 26-year old might find himself being used out of the pen or back in Reno.
RHP, Matt Barnes (Grade : B-, MLB)
The 25-year old has moved between Reno and Phoenix, and he is approaching rookie limits. He probably wishes he was back in Reno as MLB hitters are getting to him regularly. The Diamondbacks have used him exclusively from the pen, but a 5.24ERA and 1.84WHIP might see him sent back to Reno. Still just 25, so room for growth, but he's starting to lose his luster.
3B, Patrick Kivlehan (Grade : B-, Triple-A Reno)
Kivlehan is another Diamondbacks infielder who could be slated for a permanent move to the outfield. He's also hitting well if you only look at HR (15) and RBI (46), but his plate discipline is awful right now. After looking good in a season across Class-A Advanced and Double-A in 2014 he's been unimpressive in the hitter friendly PCL. Hitting .237 with 20BB to 72 strikeouts is a little disturbing.
RHP, Michael Lorenzen (Grade : B-, MLB)
The big surprise from this list who has now exceeded rookie limits. Lorenzen was brought up and given the chance to start, going 3-4 with a 3.53ERA in 12 games. Don't let the ERA fool you, his 1.47WHIP points to his 5.71FIP so expect some regression. The 47K in 71.1IP isn't exciting, and the 39BB are alarming. Lorenzen might finish out the year in the majors, hopefully he takes a step forward in 2016. Still just 23.
LHP, Cody Reed (Grade : B-, Class-A Short Hillsboro)
Cody Reed is not going to be in Hillsboro much longer if he keeps things up. The 2014 2nd rounder is looking like the better pick compared to Toissaint, and he's tearing up Class-A Short. In six starts he's struck out 40 in 34.1IP with an eye watering 1.31ERA and 0.76WHIP. His K rate isn't all that special, but he's been striking out more lately. There is a chance he could be moved up to Kane County soon, and will certainly have more scouts drooling over him.
RHP, Nick Travieso (Grade : B-, Class-A Advanced Visalia)
The 14th overall pick in the 2012 Draft is having a decent season, though he's getting hit more than expected. He has improved a career trend in ER, HR/9, BB/9, and K/9, but his H/9 has jumped up back to it's 2012-2013 level. If he can do something about those hits he should finish close to his 2014 season in Class-A.
OF, Justin Williams (Grade : B-, Class-A Kane County)
Williams' second go at Class-A is showing some mixed results. After hitting .351 across Class-A and Rookie ball in 2014 he's only hitting .289. He has hit more HR in a comparable number of plate appearances (7HR vs. 4HR in 2014), but he's also forgotten how to take a walk while still striking out at the same rate. It's hard to know what's going on, and he is still 19 and young for Class-A.
SS, Luis Sardinas (Grade : C+, Triple-A Reno)
Sardinas has bounced between the majors and minors this year, and will no longer be on this list going forward. Sardinas has exceeded rookie limits while hitting rather poorly, his defense continues to win him starts but he bat will probably keep him from a starting position. He is still 22, exceedingly young for Triple-A, so there is still room for improvement.
C, Peter O'Brien (Grade : C+, Triple-A Reno)
The hope that O'Brien stays behind the plate is starting to fade as he logs more games in the outfield. O'Brien has played 61 games in the outfield and 11 as catcher, but it hasn't slowed up his bat. With 15HR and 62RBI in the hitter friendly PCL he could easily make it to a 30-100 season, all while hitting .271 and showing little interest in taking a walk. O'Brien is less interesting as an outfielder, especially with the depth the Diamondbacks have at that position, but he could be a very valuable bat if he works on his plate discipline.
With the MLB roster slowly turning into warm bodies and expiring contracts, it looks like the future of the franchise is waiting in the minors.
Position, Player Name (Sickels Grade, Current MiLB Level)
RHP Jon Gray (Grade : A-, Triple-A Reno)
Gray is a unanimous Top 25 prospect, but he hasn't performed like one so far. He was awful to start 2014 in Double-A, but rebounded for a strong finish. He has had similar issue this season, now in Triple-A, but he has started to turn things around. The notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League isn't helping, but a good showing might see him promoted for a cup of coffee this year or perhaps a more permanent move in 2016.
OF, Jesse Winker (Grade : A-, Double-A Mobile)
Winker's second shot at Double-A ball isn't panning out as well as his 2014. He has had a painfully slow start after hitting 15HR in 2014. Hitting .266 with 5HR so far this season has left the Diamondbacks hoping for a serious rebound, if Winker is the future he needs to show more or the Diamondbacks might look to move on.
OF, Austin Meadows (Grade : B+, Class-A Advanced Visalia)
Meadows continues to confound scouts by just being a really good baseball player. Not that it's bad, but the expectations are that he will be great. He rakes, he shows excellent plate discipline, he defends well, but at 6'-3" 200 he should be hitting for more power. The 9th overall pick in the 2013 has everyone waiting to see if he ascends to the next level, at the very least he looks to be an MLB regular in the making.
OF, Michael Taylor (Grade : B+, MLB)
Currently moving back and forth between Reno and Phoenix, but it looks like Taylor is up for good. Has already exceeded rookie limits, so next season (and later this year) he won't find himself on this list. The 24-year old is currently hitting .241 with 6HR, 29RBI, and 8SB in 69 major league games.
RHP, Braden Shipley (Grade : B+, Double-A Mobile)
The Shipley-Blair debate may come to a close soon as Shipley struggles through his second go at Double-A. He hasn't looked sharp in 2015, and a bloated ERA/WHIP is proof. There might be something wrong, or he might just be working through some issues. His problems seem to stem from a dramatically lower K rate (6.2 compared to 8.1 in 2014) and a spike in hits. Low walk and HR rates are a good sign, but he needs to put it all together.
RHP, Aaron Blair (Grade : B+, Triple-A Reno)
Promoted to Triple-A after ripping through Double-A and leaving Shipley in the dust. Hasn't looked as dominant in Reno, but the Pacific Coast League is notoriously hitter friendly. His hit, walk, and HR rates have jumped but his K rate has done the same. Will have to see if Blair can right the ship and complete a season that started off well, has the opportunity to snag "Best Pitching Prospect" title if Shipley and Gray fail to rebound.
OF, Raimel Tapia (Grade : B, Class-A Advanced Visalia)
Tapia, a Top 50 prospect before the season, came over in a trade with the Mariners. The Diamondbacks have been trying to land him for some time, and they finally got him in exchange for a massive salary dump and Matt Cain. Tapia was signed by the Rockies out of the Dominican Republic at 17, and since then he has shown some considerable promise. The speedy OF has spent the entire season in Class-A Advanced hitting 8HR, 51RBI, with 19SB and a solid .331BA. There could be some power upside as he continues to develop, but his hit tool and base running ability are enough to get by right now.
OF, Billy McKinney (Grade : B, Double-A Mobile)
Started the year in Class-A Advanced and quickly moved to Double-A, still just 20 years old he could be a real sleeper waiting to break out. McKinney has played well defensively, especially out of RF where he boasts a 1.000 fielding percentage in 56 games, and hit well enough to impress the Diamondbacks. He struggled to hit in 2014 in Visalia, hitting .264, but hit .340 there to start 2015 which helped land his promotion. He won't be a star at the plate, but his approach continues to impress scouts and at 20 he can always get better.
RHP, Jeff Hoffman (Grade : B, Class-A Advanced Visalia)
Hoffman, a Top 100 prospect who came over in the Soria trade, is one of those high-upside risky moves that makes you look like a genius if it pans out and an idiot if it fails. Hoffman had Tommy John surgery prior to the 2014 draft, but that didn't seem to stop the Blue Jays from taking him 9th overall. He's opened his professional career in Class-A Advanced after a year off, and things aren't looking good. The exciting stuff, a fastball with life that cut in on righties, has lost it's excitement. Perhaps he's in a period of recovery, but if he can't regain his previous approach it will be difficult for him to stay on this list.
RHP, Touki Toussaint (Grade : B, Class-A Kane County)
Only an idiot would trade Toussaint for anything less than a King's ransom at this point. That being said, he's in a heated internal battle with fellow 2014 draft pick Cody Reed for the Diamondbacks most promising draft pick. At least for now, he's looking like a solid pick, despite the poor reports on his command, hopefully his curveball continues to be his best pitch with a future 70 grade. A 4-3 record so far with decent numbers isn't wowing anyone, but at 19 he has a lot of time to get better.
OF, Eddie Rosario (Grade : B-, MLB)
Rosario is in the same boat as Taylor as he passes rookie limits. He is having a similar season too, hitting .264 with 4HR, 20RBI, and 6SB from the outfield. Unless something changes, he looks to be an outfielder from now on.
3B, Jake Lamb (Grade : B-, MLB)
The 24-year old 3B has looked lost, injured, and exciting during the season. With Yasmany Tomas clearly unfit to hand the hot corner, it looks like the job is now Lamb's to lose. He has exceeded rookie limits while hitting .302 and showing very little power (2HR in 35 games). Hopefully a return from injury and the All-Star break will help him turn things around.
RHP, Alex Colome (Grade : B-, MLB)
RHP, Matt Barnes (Grade : B-, MLB)
The 25-year old has moved between Reno and Phoenix, and he is approaching rookie limits. He probably wishes he was back in Reno as MLB hitters are getting to him regularly. The Diamondbacks have used him exclusively from the pen, but a 5.24ERA and 1.84WHIP might see him sent back to Reno. Still just 25, so room for growth, but he's starting to lose his luster.
3B, Patrick Kivlehan (Grade : B-, Triple-A Reno)
Kivlehan is another Diamondbacks infielder who could be slated for a permanent move to the outfield. He's also hitting well if you only look at HR (15) and RBI (46), but his plate discipline is awful right now. After looking good in a season across Class-A Advanced and Double-A in 2014 he's been unimpressive in the hitter friendly PCL. Hitting .237 with 20BB to 72 strikeouts is a little disturbing.
RHP, Michael Lorenzen (Grade : B-, MLB)
LHP, Cody Reed (Grade : B-, Class-A Short Hillsboro)
Cody Reed is not going to be in Hillsboro much longer if he keeps things up. The 2014 2nd rounder is looking like the better pick compared to Toissaint, and he's tearing up Class-A Short. In six starts he's struck out 40 in 34.1IP with an eye watering 1.31ERA and 0.76WHIP. His K rate isn't all that special, but he's been striking out more lately. There is a chance he could be moved up to Kane County soon, and will certainly have more scouts drooling over him.
RHP, Nick Travieso (Grade : B-, Class-A Advanced Visalia)
The 14th overall pick in the 2012 Draft is having a decent season, though he's getting hit more than expected. He has improved a career trend in ER, HR/9, BB/9, and K/9, but his H/9 has jumped up back to it's 2012-2013 level. If he can do something about those hits he should finish close to his 2014 season in Class-A.
OF, Justin Williams (Grade : B-, Class-A Kane County)
Williams' second go at Class-A is showing some mixed results. After hitting .351 across Class-A and Rookie ball in 2014 he's only hitting .289. He has hit more HR in a comparable number of plate appearances (7HR vs. 4HR in 2014), but he's also forgotten how to take a walk while still striking out at the same rate. It's hard to know what's going on, and he is still 19 and young for Class-A.
SS, Luis Sardinas (Grade : C+, Triple-A Reno)
Sardinas has bounced between the majors and minors this year, and will no longer be on this list going forward. Sardinas has exceeded rookie limits while hitting rather poorly, his defense continues to win him starts but he bat will probably keep him from a starting position. He is still 22, exceedingly young for Triple-A, so there is still room for improvement.
C, Peter O'Brien (Grade : C+, Triple-A Reno)
The hope that O'Brien stays behind the plate is starting to fade as he logs more games in the outfield. O'Brien has played 61 games in the outfield and 11 as catcher, but it hasn't slowed up his bat. With 15HR and 62RBI in the hitter friendly PCL he could easily make it to a 30-100 season, all while hitting .271 and showing little interest in taking a walk. O'Brien is less interesting as an outfielder, especially with the depth the Diamondbacks have at that position, but he could be a very valuable bat if he works on his plate discipline.
Saturday, July 11, 2015
2015 Season Report (All-Star Break)
PHOENIX - With the All-Star game looming, the Diamondbacks are essentially waving the white flag. Nothing is going well, but in a sad twist of fate they aren't doing much worse than they did last year when they were trying to get into the playoffs.
The Diamondbacks can essentially be split into Paul Goldschmidt and Not Paul Goldschmidt at this point. Rookies have shown some promise, especially OF Michael Taylor and Eddie Rosario. J.J. Hardy has finally returned on a regular basis, but now OF Ender Inciarte has taken his spot on the DL. Jake Lamb has been disappointing, and Yasmany Tomas has failed to show much power after righting his batting average to eclipse .300. The team limps into the break, and everyone but Goldschmidt (the only Diamondbacks headed to Cincinnati) will be resting during that time.
The rotation, to put it bluntly, has fully transformed into a dumpster fire. The very expensive acquisition of Jered Weaver has turned into an equally expensive DL stint. Kyle Lobstein is hurt as well, and Alex Colome is pitching like he should be hurt. At this point the fans are just looking at their watches and waiting until Braden Shipley or Aaron Blair get called up. The only ray of hope came in the return of Patrick Corbin, who tossed a very Corbin-esque game (5.0IP, 3K, 8H, 2ER) in his first outing. The Diamondbacks aren't really looking for him to turn the entire rotation around, but a healthy Corbin puts them in a good position going forward.
The team also completed an odd deal with Toronto in order to land a highly touted IFA in OF Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (yes, THAT Vladimir Guerrero). The reports on Guerrero are positive, but most think he lacks the ceiling of his father. The ink on Guerrero's contract wasn't even dry before the Blue Jays sent him to Arizona along with Joe Nathan in exchange for Jim Johnson. Nathan represents a hefty increase in salary ($7.3 million) over Johnson ($5.8 million) with both coming off the books after the 2017 season. The price seemed right to land Guerrero, and Diamondbacks management is hoping Nathan can return to form just long enough to be worth something. This has the feel of the Soria trade in 2014, but at least Soria wasn't nearly as expensive as Nathan.
The Diamondbacks can essentially be split into Paul Goldschmidt and Not Paul Goldschmidt at this point. Rookies have shown some promise, especially OF Michael Taylor and Eddie Rosario. J.J. Hardy has finally returned on a regular basis, but now OF Ender Inciarte has taken his spot on the DL. Jake Lamb has been disappointing, and Yasmany Tomas has failed to show much power after righting his batting average to eclipse .300. The team limps into the break, and everyone but Goldschmidt (the only Diamondbacks headed to Cincinnati) will be resting during that time.
Corbin's return was promising.
The rotation, to put it bluntly, has fully transformed into a dumpster fire. The very expensive acquisition of Jered Weaver has turned into an equally expensive DL stint. Kyle Lobstein is hurt as well, and Alex Colome is pitching like he should be hurt. At this point the fans are just looking at their watches and waiting until Braden Shipley or Aaron Blair get called up. The only ray of hope came in the return of Patrick Corbin, who tossed a very Corbin-esque game (5.0IP, 3K, 8H, 2ER) in his first outing. The Diamondbacks aren't really looking for him to turn the entire rotation around, but a healthy Corbin puts them in a good position going forward.
Jim Johnson's second turn in Arizona was a disaster.
The team also completed an odd deal with Toronto in order to land a highly touted IFA in OF Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (yes, THAT Vladimir Guerrero). The reports on Guerrero are positive, but most think he lacks the ceiling of his father. The ink on Guerrero's contract wasn't even dry before the Blue Jays sent him to Arizona along with Joe Nathan in exchange for Jim Johnson. Nathan represents a hefty increase in salary ($7.3 million) over Johnson ($5.8 million) with both coming off the books after the 2017 season. The price seemed right to land Guerrero, and Diamondbacks management is hoping Nathan can return to form just long enough to be worth something. This has the feel of the Soria trade in 2014, but at least Soria wasn't nearly as expensive as Nathan.
Tuesday, June 23, 2015
2015 MLB Draft
SECAUCUS - Another year, another draft, and hopes are raised for the future. After finishing 9th in 2014 the Diamondbacks ended up picking toward the end of the round(s), but with the MLB tear down going on in 2015 they need all the new talent they can get. Heading into this draft, and looking at the farm system, it would seem the priority would be bats. Arizona has a number of high end pitching prospects, but you really can't have enough good arms.
The Diamondbacks enjoyed a number of extra picks in 2014, but that didn't happen again this year with no picks in Comp Round A or B. The Diamondbacks set a trend with their early picks by sticking to the college ranks, using their first four picks on college players who figure to make a move to the majors much sooner. After that it was pitching, pitching, and more pitching, and not a single high school player taken in the first 10 rounds. Looks like Arizona is gearing up for a more immediate turnaround.
Round (Overall Selection) : Player (School)
1 (22) : SS Dansby Swanson (Vanderbilt University, TN)
Swanson was the Diamondbacks #1 target, and they got their man. Swanson accomplished so much during his college career, it's hard to see him failing to impress as a professional. He took home Most Outstanding Player honors at the College World Series as Vanderbilt won their first-ever championship in 2014, then he became the top position prospect in college after a strong summer with the U.S. collegiate national team. Swanson increased his value when he moved from 2B to SS this year, and showed scouts he could handle the position with polish. Most feel he has the quickness and arm strength to stay at the position, even though he hadn't played there since high school in 2012, when the Rockies drafted him in the 38th round.
Swanson fits at the top of his lineup with his on-base ability and speed, and he can drive the ball into the gaps while showing moderate power. His makeup is off the charts and universally praised by coaches and scouts. Taking Swanson puts Chris Owings, who is already playing at 2B quite a bit, on notice. Swanson figures to move toward the majors quickly, and if everything works out as planned he could form a solid up-the-middle tandem with Owings.
2 (64) : LHP Alex Young (Texas Christian University, TX)
For the second straight year Arizona selected a left-hander with their second round pick.Young bolstered his stock coming into 2015 by making a strong transition from reliever to starter in the Cape Cod League and with TCU this spring. Young attacks hitters with a fastball that sits at 89-93 and shows life and a solid breaking ball. He has the ability to vary the shape of his breaking pitch, which is closer to a slider than a curveball. Young has started using his changeup more now that he has left the bullpen, it features some fade and should become at least an average offering going forward. He rated as the top prospect in Illinois as a high school senior in 2012, though his lack of signability pushed him to the 32nd round where he was drafted by the Rangers.
3 (96) : RHP Taylor Clarke (College of Charleston, SC)
Clarke has been through some tough times since 2013. Tommy John surgery shut him down, and then it looked like his college program (Towson) was going to shut it's doors. Clarke transferred to the College of Charleston and started to rebuild his draft resume once he started pitching again in 2015.He works with a 92-96 mph fastball and has the ability to carry a low-90s fastball into the late innings. His fastball lacks life but still misses bats because his overhand delivery provides deception and downhill plane. He also draws praise for his ability to throw strikes, a lot of strikes, and uses a decent change up to augment his fastball. He does lack a reliable breaking ball, so he could be destined for relief.
4 (127) : RHP Breckin Williams (University of Missouri, MO)
All you need to know about Williams to understand him is his nickname; Harley Time. His constant energy and full-out sprints to the mound are a testament to his level of aggression. He aggressively attacks hitters, and it resulted in school record for saves this spring at Missouri. He managed to elevate his stuff as a Junior, after pitching with an 88-92 mph fastball last year, he now operates in the 90-95 range.Willliams also uses a high-80's cutter, that can turn into a slider if he wants, and a decent curveball that could turn into an average pitch. He repeats his delivery well, enabling him to throw strikes and keep the ball down in the zone.
5 (157) : RHP Ryan Burr (Arizona State University, AZ)
The Diamondbacks landed an interesting pick here with Burr entering the draft as a Top 100 prospect per MLB.com. He was a well known high school prospect in 2012, but he decided to stick with his committment to Arizona State. After three years of college ball he's seen as one of the better closers in the nation, and his 97 mph fastball makes scouts drool. Unfortunately his command can be an issue, and his fastball lacks movement, but he still has the upside of a setup type reliever or closer down the road. Burr may be one of the prospects that makes it to the majors sooner than expected.
6 (187) : RHP Tyler Mark (Concordia University, CA)
Another short reliever with a strong physical build who works in the 94-95 range with his fastball. His pitches have good arm-side movement that cut in on right-handed hitters, and his slider is projectable with the ability to generate swings and misses. Like Burr, he uses an aggressive approach and goes right after hitters to make him an attractive relief option. He has some 'level of competition' questions, but he pitched well in the 2014 Northwoods League, so there will be some discovery as to his long term potential.
7 (217) : C Francis Christy (Palomar College, CA)
8 (247) : SS Kal Simmons (Kennesaw State University, GA)
9 (277) : RHP Pierce Romero (Santa Barbara Community College, CA)
10 (307) : CF Joey Armstrong (University of Nevada - Las Vegas, NV)
FULL DRAFT ANALYSIS
Outside of the top two selections, there isn't a whole lot of high-end upside in this draft. There are definitely some interesting picks that could pan out over time, but the Diamondbacks were clearly interested in stocking up on immediate impact arms. They aren't sexy, but you need a good bullpen to be successful. Lots of college guys also puts them in a position to save on draft slots, although they didn't take make high school players (4) and they were in much later rounds, they could use that money to make sure everyone signs or cover any issues with their top picks.
Best Pick : SS Dansby Swanson, 1 (22)
Not a difficult one to decide on, but in a down draft year Swanson stood out as one of the best overall prospects. A solid college position player who could make an impact within the next few years is a great addition to the Diamondbacks farm system.
Sleeper Pick : RHP Wesley Rodriguez, 12 (367)
Might not be the 'best' high round pick, but he's certainly the most interesting. Rodriguez went into the draft ranked as the 100th overall prospect by MLB.com, but he slid all the way to Arizona at 367. He's a stocky (5'-10" 200lbs) two-way player who gets most of his recognition on the mound. Some scouts have compared him to Bartolo Colon, mostly because of the build, but he can hit 98 with his fastball and tends to work in the 93-95 range. It will be interesting to see if he can make the necessary adjustments to make it to the majors.
Tuesday, June 16, 2015
2015 MLB Farm System Rankings
SCOTTSDALE - Spring Training is long gone and the season is well under way. The vast majority of teams aren't in the running for a title this season, so attention turns to the future and a (mostly) unbiased look at the league's crop of future stars.
Ranking Rational
All 30 MLB teams have been judged based on the strength of their Top 10 prospects as graded by a combination of John Sickels at Minor League Ball, Baseball America, and Rich Wilson at Prospect 361. Each grade has been assigned a numerical value similar to the Baseball America grading system. A panel of experts used cutting edge advanced metrics to look past the Top 10 to rank systems who ended up with similar scores.
This does not take into account future potential, just current grade, and only includes players who have not exceeded their rookie limits yet. Rusney Castillo and Yasmany Tomas aren't really thought of as prospects, but they haven't exceeded rookie limits yet, so for the sake of this exercise they are considered prospects.
Many thanks to Ed (Giants) and Karsten (Twins) for starting this and collaborating on the team by team analysis.
Points were totaled to give us an idea on a basic 1-30, then the three of us took a look at all of the systems and ranked them 1-30 based on the points and prospects outside of the Top 10. A number of teams sported depth that had to be considered, but calculating beyond the Top 10 was a Herculean task. The three ranking sets were averaged to form the final composite ranking.
2015 MLB Farm System Rankings
Rank - Team Name / Best Prospect (Grade)
30 - Toronto Blue Jays / C Gabriel Cena (C)
The Blue Jays philosophy, since current ownership took over in 2008, has been mainly to build from quality major leaguers and this has led to almost all relevant prospects being shipped away. The problem is, the Blue Jays are in the toughest division and although they have a good major league team every year, it has never been enough to win a title of any kind. The Blue Jays are looking strong again on paper going into the 2015 season, but long-term, their top prospect is an international signing from 2010 that hit .259 in rookie ball last year. They boast no prospects from another organizations. There is some potential here with some prospects, but their highest draft pick from last year is a 3rd rounder. Overall, there's just not enough here to make this system relevant right now.
29 - Cleveland Indians / 1B Nellie Rodriguez (C+)
Things are not looking good in Cleveland, and it's going to take some time and effort to rebuild this system. A mass exodus of prospects in exchange for major leaguers has left the lower levels of this organization bereft of high-end talent.
28 - Tampa Bay Rays / OF Scott Schebler (B-)
Although they rank towards the bottom, they have been able to compete for a World Series every year since 2012 by trading away their farm for major league pieces. This can only last for so long however, and new management seems committed to replenishing the minor league system for long-term success. OF Scott Schebler is the only B grade guy here, but a good one. He has combined for 55 homers and 177 RBI’s the past two years in Class-A and Double-A.
27 - Colorado Rockies / 2B Forrest Wall (B-)
The Rockies have been supplemented by a couple of good drafts recently, but the farm has been used primarily to acquire MLB pieces. 2B Forrest Wall and a few infield prospects still remain to provide a glimpse of hope for the future. There doesn't seem to be any sense of urgency from Colorado, as the farm will most likely continue to be used as a means to an end rather than an end in itself, which isn't always a bad thing.
26 - San Francisco Giants / OF Rusney Castillo (A-)
Top heavy with Castillo as really the only 'Top', the Giants have sold it all for the prize. Their hopes are for another solid if not spectacular draft to restock their system. There are a few high-upside players down in the lower minors like OF Mikey Edie and RHP Logan Webb. Even former overall #1 pick SS Tim Beckham seems to be doing something up in the majors.
25 - Oakland Athletics / RHP Tyler Kolek (B+)
Hard throwing 2014 draftee Tyler Kolek headlines one of the most trade decimated systems in all of baseball. The A's GM might want to get on the phone with Cleveland and discuss how they are going to rebuild their system, because things don't look to great at the moment. Oakland is well known for finding diamonds in the rough, but it's going to be really rough going forward.
24 - Miami Marlins / SS Richard Urena (B-)
A clear victim of previous owners' misuse and abuse, this is the thinnest of the NL East. Though there are a few bright spots on the offensive side of the ball like SS Richard Urena, it's going to take some conscious moves and drafts to get the farm back to being a strength.
23 - Detroit Tigers / OF Dwight Smith, Jr. (B-)
Recent trades have depleted this system, but the 2013 and 2014 draft helped them move up the standings. RHP Noah Syndergaard was the Tigers' crown jewel prior to a recent trade. Hanging on to their own prospects has helped them stay afloat.
22 - Chicago Cubs / 3B Kris Bryant (A)
‘Going for it’. That’s the mantra of the Cubs in recent months, and the roster assembled with that farm is impressive. They’ve sold their farm down to 3B Kris Bryant and a bunch of role players. A few players slated to make a splash in 2015 like 3B Johnny Urshela, RHP Nick Tropeano, and Bryant have upside that could provide immediate dividends, but after them it’s a waiting game until the next draft class comes up.
21 - Philadelphia Phillies / OF Hunter Renfroe (B)
The Phillies land low on the list despite a good mix of high-floor and high-upside prospects throughout the system. Led by OF Hunter Renfroe this system could get much stronger with some growth from the younger guys like RHP Sean Reid-Foley in 2015
20 - Washington Nationals / RHP Noah Syndergaard (A-)
Top 50 prospects RHP Noah Syndergaard and RHP Reynaldo Lopez lead the group, but there's some depth here, too. The Nationals have spent considerable time and prospect currency making their MLB squad one of the best in the league, so the farm system is a little thin. Despite this, there are lots of high-floor guys like SS Ketel Marte, SS Matt Duffy, and OF Billy Burns to bank on as trade bait as the season progresses.
19 - Cincinnati Reds / LHP Kyle Freeland (A-)
The Reds have been consistently one of the best teams in the league, including a stretch from 2009 to 2013 of five straight division titles. They have never won a National League Pennant though, and the farm system may be to blame. As a team that mostly relies their own drafted players it has always been a decent system, but they have not been able to produce elite talent need to go beyond a division title. The Reds have a lot of talent on the major league roster and a ton of cap space, so guys like LHP Kyle Freeland they could make the jump to being one of the elite teams very quickly. They might be there already with six straight postseason appearances, but a pennant or World Series title would seal it.
18 - Seattle Mariners / RHP Jon Gray (A-)
Do you like pitching? The Mariners system is just at the upper end of the middle tier, but boy do they have some interesting arms. Jon Gray and Giants 2014 draft pick RHP Tyler Beede headline a future rotation well suited to taking advantage of Safeco Field. They also feature OF Raimel Tapia who could sneak up the rankings with his power-speed combo. The Mariners system is one of the most underrated systems in the league, and is on the rise quickly.
17 - LA Dodgers / 3B DJ Peterson (B+)
This system isn't packed with a lot of elite prospect talent besides 3B DJ Peterson, but that isn't going to be a problem for them. They feature a lot of B grade range prospects with a mix of interesting high ceiling and high floor players. The Dodgers seem to get another IFA player every year that helps out the system tremendously.
16 - Chicago White Sox / OF Jorge Soler (A)
The South Siders are extremely top heavy with two of the best prospects in baseball, Jorge Soler and RHP Carlos Rodon, but things fall off pretty quickly near the bottom of the Top 10. This system is currently suffering from some serious depth issues with few prospects of note outside the Top 10. The White Sox do seem to have a GM committed to building a competitive team though. We'll see what happens in the near future with guys like Rodon and Soler already major league ready.
15 - Houston Astros / SS Carlos Correa (A)
The Astros have spent the last few years trying to rebuild their system through trades, and it has paid off. Landing Carlos Correa, potentially the best prospect in baseball, via the 2012 draft helps as well. This system's Top 10 boasts 100% home grown talent with depth at numerous positions on and off the mound.
14 - New York Yankees / RHP Archie Bradley (A-)
The New York Yankees, thanks to the draft and the IFA market, have developed one of the deepest farms in the league. Their big league team already consists of young stars such as OF Mike Trout and OF Wil Myers, but their deep farm system gives them a flowing pool of talent to pad out their major league roster. They have some great prospects at the top, such as RHP Archie Bradley, that should make this Yankee team a force for a long time.
13 - Baltimore Orioles / RHP Dylan Bundy (A-)
The Orioles have a very strong farm system and a GM with a committed approach of building with youth that is starting to pay off at the major league level. The Orioles don't haven't made many deals involving their own farm system and that is shown with guys like 3B Manny Machado and RHP Kevin Gausman at the major league level. RHP Dylan Bundy is quickly getting ready to join them. Add in some recent trade returns like LHP Julio Urias and SS Corey Seager and the Orioles have lots of prospects ready to join the graduated ranks. The one down fall with the system is its depth, as it drops off fairly quickly. Lots of guys in the C grade range but nothing really that stands out beyond the first six to ten prospects.
12 - New York Mets / 2B Dilson Herrera (B+)
Depth throughout the system leaves the Mets with a solid group. Led by 2B Dilson Herrera and LHP Steven Matz, their homegrown talent is prevalent and a testament to a team that has been through a number of owners. Strong outfield players like OF Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, and C Kevin Plawecki combined to give New York three Top 100 prospects and great balance in the minors.
11 - Atlanta Braves / RHP Lucas Giolito (A)
With two to four Top100 prospects on the team, some considerable depth throughout the Top 20 team prospects, and a strong Top 15 prospect in Lucas Giolito, the Braves are the cream of the NL East crop. Ozhaino Albies is a great guy to dream on, and Owens and Jake Thompson finish up a formidable three-headed monster of SP.
10 - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim / RHP Andrew Heaney (A-)
This system did not appear to be in good standing almost a year ago, but trades and the 2014 draft have really improved their profile. Andrew Heaney came over in a trade with the Brewers and top pitching prospect LHP Sean Newcomb landed in LA thanks to the 2014 draft. Add in the IFA process (Roberto Baldoquin) and this system looks very good, if they can find Matt Shoemaker 2.0 they could be in excellent shape.
9 - Pittsburgh Pirates / RHP Tyler Glasnow (A)
Glasnow is my favorite pitching prospect. Something about this kid makes me think he'll be great, maybe it's the devastating hammer or the explosive fastball--or both? Just a dominate anchor for this Pirates farm which features almost nothing but athletic, dynamic players. Devon Travis is already tearing up the majors, and Frazier/Bell/Pompey all represent some special talent running around in the OF. The farm also consists of a dozen or so strong IRL Pittsburgh specs, which is finally working out for the IRL Pirates. All these athletes will come up in due time and help make the NL Central one of the best divisions in this league.
8 - Minnesota Twins / OF Joc Pederson (B+)
The Twins came in 2nd in the AL Central, but that's still nothing to scoff at. Minnesota lacks a dominant 'wow' prospect, but it does feature an incredibly deep system with talent at numerous positions. Joc Pederson, who will likely make his way to the majors this year, is without a doubt the system's best prospect. Two very young players, 2014 1st rounder Alex Jackson and Franklin Barreto, could climb the rankings next season, so this system can only get better. A good mix of in-house and trade prospects have this team looking like a title contender in the coming years.
7 - San Diego Padres / LHP Daniel Norris (A-)
If you were asked to name the Top 10 systems without looking at the prospects, you probably wouldn’t have come up with the Padres. After tearing their team down this organization has quietly built one of the best farm systems in all of baseball. The Padres have some very well known prospects in Daniel Norris and Jose Pereza, with A.J. Cole and Jose Berrios starting to earn some buzz. They also sport a very balanced, and very MLB ready, Top 10. Norris, Pereza, and C J.T. Realmuto look like they might get some time in The Show. A good mix of infielders and pitching makes this a tough system to beat, only minor weakness is a lack of top end OF prospects.
6 - Arizona Diamondbacks / OF Jesse Winker (A-)
The Diamondbacks would have been much lower on this list last year, but after selling off most of their team and getting a visit from the IFA fairy they find themselves with one of the best farm systems in the majors. This doesn't even take Cuban RHP Yoan Lopez into consideration, so there is an argument to be made to move them up.
5 - Texas Rangers / OF Byron Buxton (A)
If you are looking for a system with real 'wow' factor, it's the Rangers. The oft-injured but supremely talented Byron Buxton sits atop a very balanced Top 10 with some tremendous upside. 3B Joey Gallo just hit three home runs while you read the first two sentences of this summary, and if he can cut down on the strikeouts this system could produce two of the most exciting players in baseball. This system would have ranked even higher had 2B Rougned Odor not been forced into major league playing time in 2014, but for those who love Rougned they won't have to wait long before Rougned Odor takes his place. Yes, you read that correctly, Rougned's younger brother Rougned was also signed by the Rangers and for some reason is also named Rougned.
4 - Milwaukee Brewers / 3B Miguel Sano (A-)
The most impressive thing about the Brewers is how young and well-proportioned their MLB team is already. Then when you notice their farm is insanely deep with significant players at the top, you can see how 2017 (the year Brewers has reported to be his year) is going to be a fun year to watch the Crew. There are corner infielders, middle infielders, catchers and outfielders sprinkled in the top-10, with a few key pitching prospects like Beede, Kolek, and Justus Sheffield throwing hard with HUGE upside forming a formidable base. Sano will most likely move off of 3B, as will Schwarber from C, but both have gargantuan power. Arcia and Monte Harrison provide speed and athleticism, even if they're a bit farther away. Brewers can wait and see how his farm pans out or sell it to make his MLB team even better, but either way, he's created a great resource for future success.
3 - Boston Red Sox / 2B Yoan Moncada (A-)
Another really deep system with some top-heavy talent. The IFA addition of Cuban wunderkind (or is it niño maravilla?) Yoan Moncada pushed this system up the rankings. The only possible knock, and it’s small, is the lack of depth on offense and the outfield. Moncada and McMahon could be infield studs, but this system relies on the strength of it’s potential rotation. High upside is the name of the game with former 1st overall pick Mark Appel (who’s running out of time to impress), and former Royals draft pick Kyle Zimmer.
2 - St. Louis Cardinals / SS Francisco Lindor (A)
Cardinals have slowly built one of the best farms in this league. With the internal options constantly presenting themselves from the IRL Cardinals and a few savvy moves to pick up cornerstone pieces like Lindor and Sanchez, this farm is both deep and top-heavy. Lindor looks to be a star that'll start shining at some point in 2015, even if he might not have the ceiling of a Addison Russell or Carlos Correa, he's almost sure to be a top-15 fantasy SS. The farm is diverse and deep, as well. There are no glaring holes when you look around at the positions represented except maybe 1B. Guys like Sanchez and McCullers are already producing in the Majors, fellas like Mazara and Alfaro are a little further away, and with a fantastic pitching staff and only a few missing pieces from the lineup, this squad looks good going into 2016.
1 - Kansas City Royals / SS Addison Russell (A)
This wasn't even close, in fact the Royals farm system is so deep that their 11-20 prospects would have finished 17th on this list if they were a separate team. Four Grade A prospects, including one of the Top 5 in all of baseball, helped put the Royals on top. Their incredible depth at just about every position on the diamond and litany of prospects added through trades is the key to their success, this system could form a monster in the next five years.
Ranking Rational
All 30 MLB teams have been judged based on the strength of their Top 10 prospects as graded by a combination of John Sickels at Minor League Ball, Baseball America, and Rich Wilson at Prospect 361. Each grade has been assigned a numerical value similar to the Baseball America grading system. A panel of experts used cutting edge advanced metrics to look past the Top 10 to rank systems who ended up with similar scores.
This does not take into account future potential, just current grade, and only includes players who have not exceeded their rookie limits yet. Rusney Castillo and Yasmany Tomas aren't really thought of as prospects, but they haven't exceeded rookie limits yet, so for the sake of this exercise they are considered prospects.
Many thanks to Ed (Giants) and Karsten (Twins) for starting this and collaborating on the team by team analysis.
Points were totaled to give us an idea on a basic 1-30, then the three of us took a look at all of the systems and ranked them 1-30 based on the points and prospects outside of the Top 10. A number of teams sported depth that had to be considered, but calculating beyond the Top 10 was a Herculean task. The three ranking sets were averaged to form the final composite ranking.
2015 MLB Farm System Rankings
Rank - Team Name / Best Prospect (Grade)
30 - Toronto Blue Jays / C Gabriel Cena (C)
The Blue Jays philosophy, since current ownership took over in 2008, has been mainly to build from quality major leaguers and this has led to almost all relevant prospects being shipped away. The problem is, the Blue Jays are in the toughest division and although they have a good major league team every year, it has never been enough to win a title of any kind. The Blue Jays are looking strong again on paper going into the 2015 season, but long-term, their top prospect is an international signing from 2010 that hit .259 in rookie ball last year. They boast no prospects from another organizations. There is some potential here with some prospects, but their highest draft pick from last year is a 3rd rounder. Overall, there's just not enough here to make this system relevant right now.
29 - Cleveland Indians / 1B Nellie Rodriguez (C+)
Things are not looking good in Cleveland, and it's going to take some time and effort to rebuild this system. A mass exodus of prospects in exchange for major leaguers has left the lower levels of this organization bereft of high-end talent.
28 - Tampa Bay Rays / OF Scott Schebler (B-)
Although they rank towards the bottom, they have been able to compete for a World Series every year since 2012 by trading away their farm for major league pieces. This can only last for so long however, and new management seems committed to replenishing the minor league system for long-term success. OF Scott Schebler is the only B grade guy here, but a good one. He has combined for 55 homers and 177 RBI’s the past two years in Class-A and Double-A.
27 - Colorado Rockies / 2B Forrest Wall (B-)
The Rockies have been supplemented by a couple of good drafts recently, but the farm has been used primarily to acquire MLB pieces. 2B Forrest Wall and a few infield prospects still remain to provide a glimpse of hope for the future. There doesn't seem to be any sense of urgency from Colorado, as the farm will most likely continue to be used as a means to an end rather than an end in itself, which isn't always a bad thing.
26 - San Francisco Giants / OF Rusney Castillo (A-)
Top heavy with Castillo as really the only 'Top', the Giants have sold it all for the prize. Their hopes are for another solid if not spectacular draft to restock their system. There are a few high-upside players down in the lower minors like OF Mikey Edie and RHP Logan Webb. Even former overall #1 pick SS Tim Beckham seems to be doing something up in the majors.
25 - Oakland Athletics / RHP Tyler Kolek (B+)
Hard throwing 2014 draftee Tyler Kolek headlines one of the most trade decimated systems in all of baseball. The A's GM might want to get on the phone with Cleveland and discuss how they are going to rebuild their system, because things don't look to great at the moment. Oakland is well known for finding diamonds in the rough, but it's going to be really rough going forward.
24 - Miami Marlins / SS Richard Urena (B-)
A clear victim of previous owners' misuse and abuse, this is the thinnest of the NL East. Though there are a few bright spots on the offensive side of the ball like SS Richard Urena, it's going to take some conscious moves and drafts to get the farm back to being a strength.
23 - Detroit Tigers / OF Dwight Smith, Jr. (B-)
Recent trades have depleted this system, but the 2013 and 2014 draft helped them move up the standings. RHP Noah Syndergaard was the Tigers' crown jewel prior to a recent trade. Hanging on to their own prospects has helped them stay afloat.
22 - Chicago Cubs / 3B Kris Bryant (A)
‘Going for it’. That’s the mantra of the Cubs in recent months, and the roster assembled with that farm is impressive. They’ve sold their farm down to 3B Kris Bryant and a bunch of role players. A few players slated to make a splash in 2015 like 3B Johnny Urshela, RHP Nick Tropeano, and Bryant have upside that could provide immediate dividends, but after them it’s a waiting game until the next draft class comes up.
21 - Philadelphia Phillies / OF Hunter Renfroe (B)
The Phillies land low on the list despite a good mix of high-floor and high-upside prospects throughout the system. Led by OF Hunter Renfroe this system could get much stronger with some growth from the younger guys like RHP Sean Reid-Foley in 2015
20 - Washington Nationals / RHP Noah Syndergaard (A-)
Top 50 prospects RHP Noah Syndergaard and RHP Reynaldo Lopez lead the group, but there's some depth here, too. The Nationals have spent considerable time and prospect currency making their MLB squad one of the best in the league, so the farm system is a little thin. Despite this, there are lots of high-floor guys like SS Ketel Marte, SS Matt Duffy, and OF Billy Burns to bank on as trade bait as the season progresses.
19 - Cincinnati Reds / LHP Kyle Freeland (A-)
The Reds have been consistently one of the best teams in the league, including a stretch from 2009 to 2013 of five straight division titles. They have never won a National League Pennant though, and the farm system may be to blame. As a team that mostly relies their own drafted players it has always been a decent system, but they have not been able to produce elite talent need to go beyond a division title. The Reds have a lot of talent on the major league roster and a ton of cap space, so guys like LHP Kyle Freeland they could make the jump to being one of the elite teams very quickly. They might be there already with six straight postseason appearances, but a pennant or World Series title would seal it.
18 - Seattle Mariners / RHP Jon Gray (A-)
Do you like pitching? The Mariners system is just at the upper end of the middle tier, but boy do they have some interesting arms. Jon Gray and Giants 2014 draft pick RHP Tyler Beede headline a future rotation well suited to taking advantage of Safeco Field. They also feature OF Raimel Tapia who could sneak up the rankings with his power-speed combo. The Mariners system is one of the most underrated systems in the league, and is on the rise quickly.
17 - LA Dodgers / 3B DJ Peterson (B+)
This system isn't packed with a lot of elite prospect talent besides 3B DJ Peterson, but that isn't going to be a problem for them. They feature a lot of B grade range prospects with a mix of interesting high ceiling and high floor players. The Dodgers seem to get another IFA player every year that helps out the system tremendously.
16 - Chicago White Sox / OF Jorge Soler (A)
The South Siders are extremely top heavy with two of the best prospects in baseball, Jorge Soler and RHP Carlos Rodon, but things fall off pretty quickly near the bottom of the Top 10. This system is currently suffering from some serious depth issues with few prospects of note outside the Top 10. The White Sox do seem to have a GM committed to building a competitive team though. We'll see what happens in the near future with guys like Rodon and Soler already major league ready.
15 - Houston Astros / SS Carlos Correa (A)
The Astros have spent the last few years trying to rebuild their system through trades, and it has paid off. Landing Carlos Correa, potentially the best prospect in baseball, via the 2012 draft helps as well. This system's Top 10 boasts 100% home grown talent with depth at numerous positions on and off the mound.
14 - New York Yankees / RHP Archie Bradley (A-)
The New York Yankees, thanks to the draft and the IFA market, have developed one of the deepest farms in the league. Their big league team already consists of young stars such as OF Mike Trout and OF Wil Myers, but their deep farm system gives them a flowing pool of talent to pad out their major league roster. They have some great prospects at the top, such as RHP Archie Bradley, that should make this Yankee team a force for a long time.
13 - Baltimore Orioles / RHP Dylan Bundy (A-)
The Orioles have a very strong farm system and a GM with a committed approach of building with youth that is starting to pay off at the major league level. The Orioles don't haven't made many deals involving their own farm system and that is shown with guys like 3B Manny Machado and RHP Kevin Gausman at the major league level. RHP Dylan Bundy is quickly getting ready to join them. Add in some recent trade returns like LHP Julio Urias and SS Corey Seager and the Orioles have lots of prospects ready to join the graduated ranks. The one down fall with the system is its depth, as it drops off fairly quickly. Lots of guys in the C grade range but nothing really that stands out beyond the first six to ten prospects.
12 - New York Mets / 2B Dilson Herrera (B+)
Depth throughout the system leaves the Mets with a solid group. Led by 2B Dilson Herrera and LHP Steven Matz, their homegrown talent is prevalent and a testament to a team that has been through a number of owners. Strong outfield players like OF Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, and C Kevin Plawecki combined to give New York three Top 100 prospects and great balance in the minors.
11 - Atlanta Braves / RHP Lucas Giolito (A)
With two to four Top100 prospects on the team, some considerable depth throughout the Top 20 team prospects, and a strong Top 15 prospect in Lucas Giolito, the Braves are the cream of the NL East crop. Ozhaino Albies is a great guy to dream on, and Owens and Jake Thompson finish up a formidable three-headed monster of SP.
10 - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim / RHP Andrew Heaney (A-)
This system did not appear to be in good standing almost a year ago, but trades and the 2014 draft have really improved their profile. Andrew Heaney came over in a trade with the Brewers and top pitching prospect LHP Sean Newcomb landed in LA thanks to the 2014 draft. Add in the IFA process (Roberto Baldoquin) and this system looks very good, if they can find Matt Shoemaker 2.0 they could be in excellent shape.
9 - Pittsburgh Pirates / RHP Tyler Glasnow (A)
Glasnow is my favorite pitching prospect. Something about this kid makes me think he'll be great, maybe it's the devastating hammer or the explosive fastball--or both? Just a dominate anchor for this Pirates farm which features almost nothing but athletic, dynamic players. Devon Travis is already tearing up the majors, and Frazier/Bell/Pompey all represent some special talent running around in the OF. The farm also consists of a dozen or so strong IRL Pittsburgh specs, which is finally working out for the IRL Pirates. All these athletes will come up in due time and help make the NL Central one of the best divisions in this league.
8 - Minnesota Twins / OF Joc Pederson (B+)
The Twins came in 2nd in the AL Central, but that's still nothing to scoff at. Minnesota lacks a dominant 'wow' prospect, but it does feature an incredibly deep system with talent at numerous positions. Joc Pederson, who will likely make his way to the majors this year, is without a doubt the system's best prospect. Two very young players, 2014 1st rounder Alex Jackson and Franklin Barreto, could climb the rankings next season, so this system can only get better. A good mix of in-house and trade prospects have this team looking like a title contender in the coming years.
7 - San Diego Padres / LHP Daniel Norris (A-)
If you were asked to name the Top 10 systems without looking at the prospects, you probably wouldn’t have come up with the Padres. After tearing their team down this organization has quietly built one of the best farm systems in all of baseball. The Padres have some very well known prospects in Daniel Norris and Jose Pereza, with A.J. Cole and Jose Berrios starting to earn some buzz. They also sport a very balanced, and very MLB ready, Top 10. Norris, Pereza, and C J.T. Realmuto look like they might get some time in The Show. A good mix of infielders and pitching makes this a tough system to beat, only minor weakness is a lack of top end OF prospects.
6 - Arizona Diamondbacks / OF Jesse Winker (A-)
The Diamondbacks would have been much lower on this list last year, but after selling off most of their team and getting a visit from the IFA fairy they find themselves with one of the best farm systems in the majors. This doesn't even take Cuban RHP Yoan Lopez into consideration, so there is an argument to be made to move them up.
5 - Texas Rangers / OF Byron Buxton (A)
If you are looking for a system with real 'wow' factor, it's the Rangers. The oft-injured but supremely talented Byron Buxton sits atop a very balanced Top 10 with some tremendous upside. 3B Joey Gallo just hit three home runs while you read the first two sentences of this summary, and if he can cut down on the strikeouts this system could produce two of the most exciting players in baseball. This system would have ranked even higher had 2B Rougned Odor not been forced into major league playing time in 2014, but for those who love Rougned they won't have to wait long before Rougned Odor takes his place. Yes, you read that correctly, Rougned's younger brother Rougned was also signed by the Rangers and for some reason is also named Rougned.
4 - Milwaukee Brewers / 3B Miguel Sano (A-)
The most impressive thing about the Brewers is how young and well-proportioned their MLB team is already. Then when you notice their farm is insanely deep with significant players at the top, you can see how 2017 (the year Brewers has reported to be his year) is going to be a fun year to watch the Crew. There are corner infielders, middle infielders, catchers and outfielders sprinkled in the top-10, with a few key pitching prospects like Beede, Kolek, and Justus Sheffield throwing hard with HUGE upside forming a formidable base. Sano will most likely move off of 3B, as will Schwarber from C, but both have gargantuan power. Arcia and Monte Harrison provide speed and athleticism, even if they're a bit farther away. Brewers can wait and see how his farm pans out or sell it to make his MLB team even better, but either way, he's created a great resource for future success.
3 - Boston Red Sox / 2B Yoan Moncada (A-)
Another really deep system with some top-heavy talent. The IFA addition of Cuban wunderkind (or is it niño maravilla?) Yoan Moncada pushed this system up the rankings. The only possible knock, and it’s small, is the lack of depth on offense and the outfield. Moncada and McMahon could be infield studs, but this system relies on the strength of it’s potential rotation. High upside is the name of the game with former 1st overall pick Mark Appel (who’s running out of time to impress), and former Royals draft pick Kyle Zimmer.
2 - St. Louis Cardinals / SS Francisco Lindor (A)
Cardinals have slowly built one of the best farms in this league. With the internal options constantly presenting themselves from the IRL Cardinals and a few savvy moves to pick up cornerstone pieces like Lindor and Sanchez, this farm is both deep and top-heavy. Lindor looks to be a star that'll start shining at some point in 2015, even if he might not have the ceiling of a Addison Russell or Carlos Correa, he's almost sure to be a top-15 fantasy SS. The farm is diverse and deep, as well. There are no glaring holes when you look around at the positions represented except maybe 1B. Guys like Sanchez and McCullers are already producing in the Majors, fellas like Mazara and Alfaro are a little further away, and with a fantastic pitching staff and only a few missing pieces from the lineup, this squad looks good going into 2016.
1 - Kansas City Royals / SS Addison Russell (A)
This wasn't even close, in fact the Royals farm system is so deep that their 11-20 prospects would have finished 17th on this list if they were a separate team. Four Grade A prospects, including one of the Top 5 in all of baseball, helped put the Royals on top. Their incredible depth at just about every position on the diamond and litany of prospects added through trades is the key to their success, this system could form a monster in the next five years.
Sunday, June 14, 2015
2015 Season Report (50 Games)
PHOENIX - The 2015 season has not been good for the Diamondbacks. They seem to be caught in some kind of limbo where they aren't bad enough to be the hunt for a Top 5 draft pick, but they are just good enough that it gives fans hope. You could probably do some serious analysis of the statistics to see how a team that has been dismantled is still 19th (24-26), but it probably just comes down to Paul Goldschmidt.
Goldschmidt continues to power the Arizona offense on his way to an MVP season, but he's finally getting a little help from the rest of the team. Chris Owings, finally healthy (for now), is settling in at 2B with the return of J.J. Hardy at SS. Yasmany Tomas is hitting, but he isn't showing the power the Diamondbacks had hoped for when they signed him. Despite his troubles at the hot corner, he's back there with better options in the OF and Blake DeWitt languishing on the bench. Speaking of OF options, the Diamondbacks have a number of them that include some rookies enjoying early calls to the show. David Peralta and Ender Inciarte are 2014 veterans, but Eddie Rosario and Michael Taylor are enjoying extended runs. With Jake Lamb returning soon we could see Rosario or Taylor sent down or moved to spot-start duty, Lamb will be needed at 3B which would move Tomas back to the OF.
The pitching staff, now minus Soria and Bolsinger, is basically a giant flaming wreck. There are some nice stories, with Jim Johnson looking better and rookie Michael Lorenzen having a decent first stint in the majors. This staff has been awful, and it looks like management is just waiting out the season before they can promote their prospects in 2016.
Goldschmidt continues to power the Arizona offense on his way to an MVP season, but he's finally getting a little help from the rest of the team. Chris Owings, finally healthy (for now), is settling in at 2B with the return of J.J. Hardy at SS. Yasmany Tomas is hitting, but he isn't showing the power the Diamondbacks had hoped for when they signed him. Despite his troubles at the hot corner, he's back there with better options in the OF and Blake DeWitt languishing on the bench. Speaking of OF options, the Diamondbacks have a number of them that include some rookies enjoying early calls to the show. David Peralta and Ender Inciarte are 2014 veterans, but Eddie Rosario and Michael Taylor are enjoying extended runs. With Jake Lamb returning soon we could see Rosario or Taylor sent down or moved to spot-start duty, Lamb will be needed at 3B which would move Tomas back to the OF.
The pitching staff, now minus Soria and Bolsinger, is basically a giant flaming wreck. There are some nice stories, with Jim Johnson looking better and rookie Michael Lorenzen having a decent first stint in the majors. This staff has been awful, and it looks like management is just waiting out the season before they can promote their prospects in 2016.
Friday, June 12, 2015
Diamondbacks Trade Cain, Land Tapia
PHOENIX - With the Diamondbacks in full downward spiral, the team made an odd and very expensive move that increases their prospect haul for 2015. Matt Cain, just about ready to come off the DL, was sent to Seattle in exchange for Jered Weaver and OF prospect Raimel Tapia.
Cain was set to make $10.8 million this year with a team option for 2016, but now the Diamondbacks will be paying Weaver a whopping $16.5 million a year through 2016. The team doesn't seem interested in competing this year or next, so obviously this was a move to land the highly regarded Tapia.
Tapia signed with the Colorado Rockies at 17 coming out of the Dominican Republic, and he's looked pretty good ever since graduating from the Dominican Summer League in 2012. He has started off 2015 well in Class-A Advanced, and looks to continue his hitting in Visalia. Tapia could develop some power, but for the time being he hits fr average with a quick swing and shows speed on the base paths. If he stays at CF he could be a valuable addition to Arizona who currently lack a solid option at CF.
Cain leaves without throwing a single pitch for Arizona.
Cain was set to make $10.8 million this year with a team option for 2016, but now the Diamondbacks will be paying Weaver a whopping $16.5 million a year through 2016. The team doesn't seem interested in competing this year or next, so obviously this was a move to land the highly regarded Tapia.
Tapia signed with the Colorado Rockies at 17 coming out of the Dominican Republic, and he's looked pretty good ever since graduating from the Dominican Summer League in 2012. He has started off 2015 well in Class-A Advanced, and looks to continue his hitting in Visalia. Tapia could develop some power, but for the time being he hits fr average with a quick swing and shows speed on the base paths. If he stays at CF he could be a valuable addition to Arizona who currently lack a solid option at CF.
Tuesday, June 9, 2015
Diamondbacks Trade Soria
PHOENIX - With the team looking terrible, and ownership looking ahead to the future, it was only a matter of time before Joakim Soria would be headed out of town. Currently tied for 8th in the majors with 15 saves, Soria has put up a solid 1.21ERA and 0.72WHIP during the start of the season. Soria, who's contract expires at the end of the season, had always been a hot trade target with title contenders in need of bullpen help.
Soria would ship out along with pitching surprise Michael Bolsinger, who along with Soria had been one of if not the only bright spot in the rotation. The trade with the Mariners returned RHP Jon Gray, a Top 25 pitching prospect, and Blue Jays 2014 1st round (9th overall) selection RHP Jeff Hoffman. It looks like management couldn't turn down that kind of haul, even if neither of them make the majors it's worth a shot on highly regarded talent.
Jon Gray has bounced around the league quite a bit since being taken 3rd overall by the Colorado Rockies in 2013. Gray is actually no stranger to moving around quite a bit after he bounced around college with stints at East Oklahoma State College and the University of Oklahoma. Gray has been drafted three times, first by the Royals (13th round) out of high school in 2010, then by the Yankees (10th round) out of East Oklahoma State in 2011. Gray looked very good in 2014 during his first season in Double-A, but he has struggled a bit in Triple-A through the start of 2015. If he can turn things around, he has a decent shot at the Diamondbacks rotation in 2016.
Jeff Hoffman, while highly regarded, is a risky prospect. Hoffman, who had Top 3 potential, underwent Tommy John surgery prior to the 2014 draft. The Blue Jays looked past the injury and still selected him 9th overall. He has bounced from Toronto to Seattle, but he has shown enough promise that evaluators still feel he's worth the risk
Soria would ship out along with pitching surprise Michael Bolsinger, who along with Soria had been one of if not the only bright spot in the rotation. The trade with the Mariners returned RHP Jon Gray, a Top 25 pitching prospect, and Blue Jays 2014 1st round (9th overall) selection RHP Jeff Hoffman. It looks like management couldn't turn down that kind of haul, even if neither of them make the majors it's worth a shot on highly regarded talent.
Jon Gray has bounced around the league quite a bit since being taken 3rd overall by the Colorado Rockies in 2013. Gray is actually no stranger to moving around quite a bit after he bounced around college with stints at East Oklahoma State College and the University of Oklahoma. Gray has been drafted three times, first by the Royals (13th round) out of high school in 2010, then by the Yankees (10th round) out of East Oklahoma State in 2011. Gray looked very good in 2014 during his first season in Double-A, but he has struggled a bit in Triple-A through the start of 2015. If he can turn things around, he has a decent shot at the Diamondbacks rotation in 2016.
Jeff Hoffman, while highly regarded, is a risky prospect. Hoffman, who had Top 3 potential, underwent Tommy John surgery prior to the 2014 draft. The Blue Jays looked past the injury and still selected him 9th overall. He has bounced from Toronto to Seattle, but he has shown enough promise that evaluators still feel he's worth the risk
Thursday, May 28, 2015
2015 Season - Down On The Farm (April-May)
A deluge of prospects hit the desert this offseason with so many MLB regulars packing their bags and heading elsewhere. The biggest changes occurred with the hitters acquired, perhaps the future of the franchise will arise between Jesse Winker, Austin Meadows, and Michael Taylor. Will Jake Lamb regress or become the next Paul Goldschmidt? Can Braden Shipley, Aaron Blair, and Touki Toussaint form a three headed monster on the mound? Nobody knows for sure, but it's going to be fun finding out.
A few minor changes, no pun intended, happened toward the end of 2014 as minor league affiliate contracts expired and found new parent organizations. Luckily for the Diamondbacks only one of the lower affiliates moved on to other organizations.
Triple-A : Reno Aces (Pacific Coast League) - Unchanged
Double-A : Mobile BayBears (Southern League) - Unchanged
Class-A Advanced : Visalia Rawhide (California League) - Unchanged
Class-A : Kane County Cougars (Midwest League) - Replaces South Bend
Class-A Short : Hillsboro Hops (Northwest League) - Unchanged
Rookie : Missoula Osprey (Pioneer League) - Unchanged
Rookie : AZL Diamondbacks (Arizona League) - Unchanged
Position, Player Name (Sickels Grade, Current MiLB Level)
OF, Jesse Winker (Grade : A-, Double-A Mobile)
The 21-year old outfielder hit .317/.426/.580 in 53 games the California League, but struggled to a .208/.326/.351 slash line in an injury shortened stint in Double-A. Winker rebounded from his wrist injury during the Arizona Fall League (.338/.440/.559) and looks promising heading into 2015. Winker doesn't display more than average power, but his outstanding plate discipline and feel for hitting should help him produce going forward. Hopeful comparison is a Joey Votto type career, but he's still young so it could go either way.
OF, Austin Meadows (Grade : B+, Class-A Advanced Visalia)
One of Arizona's best new prospects hit .322/.388/.486 in 146 at-bats in Class-A Short during 2014. Was slowed by nagging injuries during the first part of the season, so most observers expect a much better 2015. Meadows displays strong on-base skills, hits for average, and shows the potential for at least moderate power. Defensively he needs some work, but he has the tools to play center. A healthy 2015 could see his stock rise, but at 19 he is probably still far away from the majors.
OF, Michael Taylor (Grade : B+, Triple-A Reno)
The centerpiece of the Matt Adams trade with Seattle, toolsy outfielder hit .313/.396/.539 in Double-A with 34 steals, plays excellent defense from center field. Physical tools have always been there and he’s taken several steps forward over the past few seasons. Probably won't hit .300+ down the road, but his power-speed-defense combo has too much potential to worry about batting average right now. Arizona coaches are hoping they have a potential 20-30 upside guy who will be around for quite some time, still just 23.
RHP, Braden Shipley (Grade : B+, Double-A Mobile)
Let the Shipley-Blair debate begin! Shipley had a good 2014 season with a 3.86 ERA and 127/42 K/BB in 126 innings through three levels. Still projects as a #3 starter, similar stuff to Blair with low/mid-90s heat, good changeup, good curve. Shows better command and athleticism than Blair, still has time to improve his stock at 22 years old.
RHP, Aaron Blair (Grade : B+, Double-A Mobile)
Basically the same age as Shipley, posted similar numbers (3.56 ERA, 171/51 K/B in 154 innings) through three levels. Flashes superior dominance numbers, which is why some have him over Shipley. Curveball has progressed to compliment his already excellent fastball/change combination. Also profiles as a future #3 starter, and like Shipley still has time to improve at 22 years-old.
OF, Billy McKinney (Grade : B, Class-A Advanced Visalia)
McKinney bounced around a little in 2014, going from Oakland to Seattle to Toronto to Chicago before landing in Arizona during the offseason. He is likely the least heralded of Arizona's incoming OF class, but at age 20 he hit .301/.390/.432 in the more difficult Florida State League after a slow start to the year for Oakland. Doesn’t have the tools of the guys ranked ahead of him but his instincts draw consistent praise. He also has a long track record of impressing scouts and coaches with his approach, so he does have a decent shot of outperforming his projections.
RHP, Touki Toussaint (Grade : B, Class-A Kane County)
2014 1st round pick, posted 8.48 ERA with 32/18 K/BB in first 29 pro innings. Like Shipley shows amazing athleticism with mid-90s heat. Stand out trait is having of the best curveballs to come out of the high school ranks since Bert Blyleven. Still raw, newer to baseball after playing soccer since youth, but he could develop into anything from an Ace to a Double-A burnout. Has potential to be the best pitcher in Arizona's system.
2B, Eddie Rosario (Grade : B-, Triple-A Reno)
Rosario finally joined the Diamondbacks organization after a close call in 2014, but he's almost as talented as he is risky. Tools are not as robust as other top prospects, but up until 2014 he’s always hit very, very well. He has shown impressive instincts and on-field effort which helps all of his tools play up, but a drug suspension in 2014 hurt his stock with observers. Rosario also struggled to adjust to Double-A pitching after two very good seasons in 2012 and 2013 from Rookie to Class-A Advanced. Perhaps a second stint in Double-A will earn him a trip to Reno or a late September call up.
3B, Jake Lamb (Grade : B-, Triple-A Reno)
Lamb is an interesting player who may need to improve quickly before coaches change their minds. Annihilated minor league pitching (.321/.406/.553 in his career) and defends well from the hot corner. He was rushed to the majors after a hot start to 2014 and struggled, hitting .230/.263/.373 in 126 at-bats. Showed good control of the strike zone in the minors, but it got away from him in the majors, experienced pitchers were able to exploit his aggression and find holes in his swing. Will probably be given a chance to stick in the majors, but if he flounders the organization may move on from him and give other prospects a shot. 2015 will be a big year for him, for better or for worse.
RHP, Alex Colome (Grade : B-, Triple-A Reno)
Now 26 and starting to suffer from prospect fatigue, but it's looking like this could be his last shot at a rotation spot. His stuff has always been good, but his command and durability have always been questioned. Could be headed to the bullpen if he doesn't put it together soon.
RHP, Matt Barnes (Grade : B-, Triple-A Reno)
Barnes, an organizational favorite for some time, is starting to lose his shine. At age 24 he posted a 3.95 ERA with 103/46 K/BB in 128 innings in Triple-A. He struggled with shoulder trouble early in the season but got over it. Coaches are becoming split on if he will be more of a reliever than a starter. Still shows a good fastball and change-up, but his breaking stuff remains erratic. Barnes will probably get a shot at some point this season, but he is approaching the risk of becoming a Quadruple-A guy since he doesn't have much left to prove in the minors.
3B, Patrick Kivlehan (Grade : B-, Triple-A Reno)
The 25-year old came over in the Arrieta trade with San Francisco, and could be closer to the majors than most think. He hit .295/.363/.507 with 20 homers, 56 walks, 110 strikeouts in 519 at-bats between High-A and Double-A. The former Rutgers football player has improved his baseball skills rapidly, but here are still questions about defense and ability to maintain OBP/BA against quality pitching. Will start the year in Double-A with a solid chance of seeing some time at Triple-A Reno.
RHP, Michael Lorenzen (Grade : B-, Triple-A Reno)
Lorenzen came over in the Jake Arrieta trade with San Francisco after posting a 3.13 ERA with 84/44 K/BB in 121 innings in 2014. Features a hard sinker and promising slider, but his change-up needs work to elevate himself beyond mid-rotation potential. Potential to be more dominant in relief.
LHP, Cody Reed (Grade : B-, Rookie Missoula)
2014 2nd round pick better known for his size, had excellent pro debut (2.20 ERA with 40/12 K/BB in 33 innings) and shows signs of improvement. Three pitch mix, fastball, slider, change, velocity varies but he was excellent overall in his debut. Also projects as a #3 starter, but will need to work on his physique in the long run.
RHP, Nick Travieso (Grade : B-, Class-A Advanced Visalia)
Another member of the Arrieta trade, just recently turned 21. Posted 3.03 ERA with 14-5 record, 114/44 K/BB in 143 innings in Low-A after repeating the league. Velocity has recovered after dropping in 2013, a disappointing season for him. Has shown some progression with his slider and change-up. Like his trade partner Lorenzen he shows mid-rotation possibility with a chance at being more dominant if used in relief role.
OF, Justin Williams (Grade : B-, Class-A Kane County)
Williams hit .351/.403/.467 between Pioneer and Midwest Leagues in 2014 at the age of 18. Was supposed to be very raw when drafted in second round from a Louisiana high school in ’13 but has shown better-than-expected hitting skills to go with excellent raw power. Defense is steadily improving, but an impatient approach is slowing his development. If he can make the necessary adjustments as he moves up he could develop into a high upside player.
SS, Luis Sardinas (Grade : C+, Triple-A Reno)
Sardinas has dropped a little on the grading scale after starting 2014 at B-, but this is probably due to his hitting turning out as expected. Mostly seen as a defense-first contact hitter he batted .261/.303/.313 in 115 at-bats in his major league debut during the 2014 season. He has Aaron Hill blocking him for a regular spot, but if he continues to develop as a hitter he could be a regular by 2016. Diamondbacks coaching staff is also hoping he can return to stealing 30+ bases, as he did in Class-A Advanced and Double-A in 2012 and 2013, he bounced between Triple-A and the majors last season so his 2014 SB total is probably not an indication of his potential.
C, Peter O'Brien (Grade : C+, Triple-A Reno)
O'Brien takes a hit due to the uncertainty behind his final position. Has the tools to catch, but lacks polish and needs to improve if he's going to stay behind the plate. Flashed some serious power in 2014, hit .271/.316/.594 with 34 homers, 21 walks, 111 strikeouts in 399 at-bats between Yankees and Diamondbacks systems. He currently has an aggressive approach that could cut into OBP/batting average against better pitching. Very dangerous when he gets something hittable, but as he moves closer to the majors he won't see as many hittable balls. If he can stick at Catcher, could be extremely valuable, but a move to 1B would have him stuck behind Paul Goldschmidt. Not good.
A few minor changes, no pun intended, happened toward the end of 2014 as minor league affiliate contracts expired and found new parent organizations. Luckily for the Diamondbacks only one of the lower affiliates moved on to other organizations.
Triple-A : Reno Aces (Pacific Coast League) - Unchanged
Double-A : Mobile BayBears (Southern League) - Unchanged
Class-A Advanced : Visalia Rawhide (California League) - Unchanged
Class-A : Kane County Cougars (Midwest League) - Replaces South Bend
Class-A Short : Hillsboro Hops (Northwest League) - Unchanged
Rookie : Missoula Osprey (Pioneer League) - Unchanged
Rookie : AZL Diamondbacks (Arizona League) - Unchanged
Position, Player Name (Sickels Grade, Current MiLB Level)
OF, Jesse Winker (Grade : A-, Double-A Mobile)
The 21-year old outfielder hit .317/.426/.580 in 53 games the California League, but struggled to a .208/.326/.351 slash line in an injury shortened stint in Double-A. Winker rebounded from his wrist injury during the Arizona Fall League (.338/.440/.559) and looks promising heading into 2015. Winker doesn't display more than average power, but his outstanding plate discipline and feel for hitting should help him produce going forward. Hopeful comparison is a Joey Votto type career, but he's still young so it could go either way.
OF, Austin Meadows (Grade : B+, Class-A Advanced Visalia)
One of Arizona's best new prospects hit .322/.388/.486 in 146 at-bats in Class-A Short during 2014. Was slowed by nagging injuries during the first part of the season, so most observers expect a much better 2015. Meadows displays strong on-base skills, hits for average, and shows the potential for at least moderate power. Defensively he needs some work, but he has the tools to play center. A healthy 2015 could see his stock rise, but at 19 he is probably still far away from the majors.
OF, Michael Taylor (Grade : B+, Triple-A Reno)
The centerpiece of the Matt Adams trade with Seattle, toolsy outfielder hit .313/.396/.539 in Double-A with 34 steals, plays excellent defense from center field. Physical tools have always been there and he’s taken several steps forward over the past few seasons. Probably won't hit .300+ down the road, but his power-speed-defense combo has too much potential to worry about batting average right now. Arizona coaches are hoping they have a potential 20-30 upside guy who will be around for quite some time, still just 23.
RHP, Braden Shipley (Grade : B+, Double-A Mobile)
Let the Shipley-Blair debate begin! Shipley had a good 2014 season with a 3.86 ERA and 127/42 K/BB in 126 innings through three levels. Still projects as a #3 starter, similar stuff to Blair with low/mid-90s heat, good changeup, good curve. Shows better command and athleticism than Blair, still has time to improve his stock at 22 years old.
RHP, Aaron Blair (Grade : B+, Double-A Mobile)
Basically the same age as Shipley, posted similar numbers (3.56 ERA, 171/51 K/B in 154 innings) through three levels. Flashes superior dominance numbers, which is why some have him over Shipley. Curveball has progressed to compliment his already excellent fastball/change combination. Also profiles as a future #3 starter, and like Shipley still has time to improve at 22 years-old.
OF, Billy McKinney (Grade : B, Class-A Advanced Visalia)
McKinney bounced around a little in 2014, going from Oakland to Seattle to Toronto to Chicago before landing in Arizona during the offseason. He is likely the least heralded of Arizona's incoming OF class, but at age 20 he hit .301/.390/.432 in the more difficult Florida State League after a slow start to the year for Oakland. Doesn’t have the tools of the guys ranked ahead of him but his instincts draw consistent praise. He also has a long track record of impressing scouts and coaches with his approach, so he does have a decent shot of outperforming his projections.
RHP, Touki Toussaint (Grade : B, Class-A Kane County)
2014 1st round pick, posted 8.48 ERA with 32/18 K/BB in first 29 pro innings. Like Shipley shows amazing athleticism with mid-90s heat. Stand out trait is having of the best curveballs to come out of the high school ranks since Bert Blyleven. Still raw, newer to baseball after playing soccer since youth, but he could develop into anything from an Ace to a Double-A burnout. Has potential to be the best pitcher in Arizona's system.
2B, Eddie Rosario (Grade : B-, Triple-A Reno)
Rosario finally joined the Diamondbacks organization after a close call in 2014, but he's almost as talented as he is risky. Tools are not as robust as other top prospects, but up until 2014 he’s always hit very, very well. He has shown impressive instincts and on-field effort which helps all of his tools play up, but a drug suspension in 2014 hurt his stock with observers. Rosario also struggled to adjust to Double-A pitching after two very good seasons in 2012 and 2013 from Rookie to Class-A Advanced. Perhaps a second stint in Double-A will earn him a trip to Reno or a late September call up.
3B, Jake Lamb (Grade : B-, Triple-A Reno)
Lamb is an interesting player who may need to improve quickly before coaches change their minds. Annihilated minor league pitching (.321/.406/.553 in his career) and defends well from the hot corner. He was rushed to the majors after a hot start to 2014 and struggled, hitting .230/.263/.373 in 126 at-bats. Showed good control of the strike zone in the minors, but it got away from him in the majors, experienced pitchers were able to exploit his aggression and find holes in his swing. Will probably be given a chance to stick in the majors, but if he flounders the organization may move on from him and give other prospects a shot. 2015 will be a big year for him, for better or for worse.
RHP, Alex Colome (Grade : B-, Triple-A Reno)
Now 26 and starting to suffer from prospect fatigue, but it's looking like this could be his last shot at a rotation spot. His stuff has always been good, but his command and durability have always been questioned. Could be headed to the bullpen if he doesn't put it together soon.
RHP, Matt Barnes (Grade : B-, Triple-A Reno)
Barnes, an organizational favorite for some time, is starting to lose his shine. At age 24 he posted a 3.95 ERA with 103/46 K/BB in 128 innings in Triple-A. He struggled with shoulder trouble early in the season but got over it. Coaches are becoming split on if he will be more of a reliever than a starter. Still shows a good fastball and change-up, but his breaking stuff remains erratic. Barnes will probably get a shot at some point this season, but he is approaching the risk of becoming a Quadruple-A guy since he doesn't have much left to prove in the minors.
3B, Patrick Kivlehan (Grade : B-, Triple-A Reno)
The 25-year old came over in the Arrieta trade with San Francisco, and could be closer to the majors than most think. He hit .295/.363/.507 with 20 homers, 56 walks, 110 strikeouts in 519 at-bats between High-A and Double-A. The former Rutgers football player has improved his baseball skills rapidly, but here are still questions about defense and ability to maintain OBP/BA against quality pitching. Will start the year in Double-A with a solid chance of seeing some time at Triple-A Reno.
RHP, Michael Lorenzen (Grade : B-, Triple-A Reno)
Lorenzen came over in the Jake Arrieta trade with San Francisco after posting a 3.13 ERA with 84/44 K/BB in 121 innings in 2014. Features a hard sinker and promising slider, but his change-up needs work to elevate himself beyond mid-rotation potential. Potential to be more dominant in relief.
LHP, Cody Reed (Grade : B-, Rookie Missoula)
2014 2nd round pick better known for his size, had excellent pro debut (2.20 ERA with 40/12 K/BB in 33 innings) and shows signs of improvement. Three pitch mix, fastball, slider, change, velocity varies but he was excellent overall in his debut. Also projects as a #3 starter, but will need to work on his physique in the long run.
RHP, Nick Travieso (Grade : B-, Class-A Advanced Visalia)
Another member of the Arrieta trade, just recently turned 21. Posted 3.03 ERA with 14-5 record, 114/44 K/BB in 143 innings in Low-A after repeating the league. Velocity has recovered after dropping in 2013, a disappointing season for him. Has shown some progression with his slider and change-up. Like his trade partner Lorenzen he shows mid-rotation possibility with a chance at being more dominant if used in relief role.
OF, Justin Williams (Grade : B-, Class-A Kane County)
Williams hit .351/.403/.467 between Pioneer and Midwest Leagues in 2014 at the age of 18. Was supposed to be very raw when drafted in second round from a Louisiana high school in ’13 but has shown better-than-expected hitting skills to go with excellent raw power. Defense is steadily improving, but an impatient approach is slowing his development. If he can make the necessary adjustments as he moves up he could develop into a high upside player.
SS, Luis Sardinas (Grade : C+, Triple-A Reno)
Sardinas has dropped a little on the grading scale after starting 2014 at B-, but this is probably due to his hitting turning out as expected. Mostly seen as a defense-first contact hitter he batted .261/.303/.313 in 115 at-bats in his major league debut during the 2014 season. He has Aaron Hill blocking him for a regular spot, but if he continues to develop as a hitter he could be a regular by 2016. Diamondbacks coaching staff is also hoping he can return to stealing 30+ bases, as he did in Class-A Advanced and Double-A in 2012 and 2013, he bounced between Triple-A and the majors last season so his 2014 SB total is probably not an indication of his potential.
C, Peter O'Brien (Grade : C+, Triple-A Reno)
O'Brien takes a hit due to the uncertainty behind his final position. Has the tools to catch, but lacks polish and needs to improve if he's going to stay behind the plate. Flashed some serious power in 2014, hit .271/.316/.594 with 34 homers, 21 walks, 111 strikeouts in 399 at-bats between Yankees and Diamondbacks systems. He currently has an aggressive approach that could cut into OBP/batting average against better pitching. Very dangerous when he gets something hittable, but as he moves closer to the majors he won't see as many hittable balls. If he can stick at Catcher, could be extremely valuable, but a move to 1B would have him stuck behind Paul Goldschmidt. Not good.
Sunday, May 24, 2015
2015 Season Report (25 Games)
PHOENIX -The 2015 season is well under way, the best teams look like potential champions and the bad teams look... bad. The Diamondbacks season hasn't started as expected, mostly due to a massive wave of injuries, but somehow they aren't the worst team in baseball. Currently 17th in the majors and 10th in the National League, it's probably because Paul Goldschmidt is just that good.
At the plate the Diamondbacks are basically Goldschmidt and some guys with Chris Owings, David Peralta, and Ender Inciarte being the only other contributors of note. Goldschmidt is right on pace for his MVP campaign with 5HR, 19RBI, 4SB, and a healthy .315 average. Owings and Peralta have bounced around a little defensively, and their numbers look good, but both are hitting well below .250 and that is killing their output. Inciarte has been solid defensively and at the plate, but he has only stolen two bases so far which is below expectations.
The coaching staff has left fans irate after how Michael Taylor, one of their better prospects, was sent down in favor of Yasmany Tomas. Taylor starter the season hitting .271 with 2HR, 8RBI, and 2SB before he was swapped for Tomas who has done almost nothing. Tomas has struggled at 3B, giving way to Jake Lamb (who is now injured) and the warm-body of Blake DeWitt. Injuries to Oscar Hernadez, Lamb, and J.J. Hardy have left this team grasping for people to fill in. It's going to be a long season.
It's actually pretty sad, but the offense is by far the best feature of this Diamondbacks team. The pitching staff is just flat out terrible, and everyone is either injured or about the be DFA'd. The best pitcher is... yes, you guessed it, Joakim Soria! Soria has reclaimed his 'Mexicutioner' title and is having one heck of a season. He has racked up 8SV and a win to go along with his 1.86ERA. It's probably not a good thing when your closer is your best pitcher. It's really going to be a long season.
At the plate the Diamondbacks are basically Goldschmidt and some guys with Chris Owings, David Peralta, and Ender Inciarte being the only other contributors of note. Goldschmidt is right on pace for his MVP campaign with 5HR, 19RBI, 4SB, and a healthy .315 average. Owings and Peralta have bounced around a little defensively, and their numbers look good, but both are hitting well below .250 and that is killing their output. Inciarte has been solid defensively and at the plate, but he has only stolen two bases so far which is below expectations.
Goldschmidt may have to do it all himself.
The coaching staff has left fans irate after how Michael Taylor, one of their better prospects, was sent down in favor of Yasmany Tomas. Taylor starter the season hitting .271 with 2HR, 8RBI, and 2SB before he was swapped for Tomas who has done almost nothing. Tomas has struggled at 3B, giving way to Jake Lamb (who is now injured) and the warm-body of Blake DeWitt. Injuries to Oscar Hernadez, Lamb, and J.J. Hardy have left this team grasping for people to fill in. It's going to be a long season.
It's actually pretty sad, but the offense is by far the best feature of this Diamondbacks team. The pitching staff is just flat out terrible, and everyone is either injured or about the be DFA'd. The best pitcher is... yes, you guessed it, Joakim Soria! Soria has reclaimed his 'Mexicutioner' title and is having one heck of a season. He has racked up 8SV and a win to go along with his 1.86ERA. It's probably not a good thing when your closer is your best pitcher. It's really going to be a long season.
Tuesday, April 7, 2015
2015 NL West Preview
The NL West Champion is pretty clear with 162 games to go, it would take an act of God for the Giants to drop the division this year. Despite all of that, they still play the games, so anything can happen.
Only the Giants made the playoffs in 2014, with Arizona missing out after losing Goldschmidt for the end of the season. That won't be an issue this year with Arizona, Los Angeles, Colorado, and San Diego setting their sights on the future. Non-San Francisco NL West fans should hit up Baseball America or ESPN and bone up on the 2016 draft class, they are going to be drafting early.
NL West Projected Finish
#1 San Francisco Giants (100-62) : The Giants are simply loaded, again, and barring any injuries will be a favorite to win the World Series for a second time. The Giants wheeled and dealed this offseason to unload some contracts and got younger on offense. Chris Davis and Robinson Cano are gone in favor of Jason Kipnis, Rusney Castillo, and J.D. Martinez. They also added Felix Hernandez, who can replace David Price after he left for free agency. They have one of the most solid offenses in baseball and the deepest rotation, it looks like only the Cubs have the firepower to stop them from repeating as World Champions. They headed into free agency with $14.6 million to spend, but instead of spending on free agents they made some moves and brought in Miguel Cabrera.
Bumgarner could unseat Clayton Kershaw as the NL Cy Young winner.
#2 Arizona Diamondbacks (76-84) : Faint praise, but the Diamondbacks might be the second best team in this division again. The gap in wins between #1 and #2 is going to be significantly wider than #2 and #5, and to be honest anybody from 2-5 could easily finish last in the division. The only thing holding this team up is having some high-upside hitting and starting pitchers. Paul Goldschmidt has MVP potential, and Yasmany Tomas could be a real surprise. An entire season of David Peralta and Chris Owings might just be enough to boost this team from worst to almost-worst. Gio Gonzalez should have a bounce back season, and Patrick Corbin might help after the All Star break, but beyond them this rotation is a real launching pad.
#3 Los Angeles Dodgers (72-90) : This is where projecting the standings gets hard, but the Dodgers get a small edge for having a slightly more complete roster. They still have a big name in Prince Fielder, but beyond that they are lacking in high end talent. Fielder will have to return from a lost 2014 season if the Dodgers are going to avoid a 100 loss season. The rotation is full, unlike San Diego, but it's mostly just warm bodies and bloated contracts. This team is very expensive, doesn't have a very high ceiling, and swap a bunch of talent for impact prospects.
#4 Colorado Rockies (72-90) : The Rockies look like they are stuck somewhere between the Dodgers and Padres as far as roster construction goes. They have depth on offense and some decent pitching options, but they will need good seasons from guys like Ryan Howard to pass Los Angeles. Troy Tulowitzki is one of the best players in baseball, and will probably be in Colorado for quite some time, but he's alone in terms of high impact bats. James Loney, Will Middlebrooks, and Josh Reddick are decent players but hardly All-Star talent. Colorado has more pitchers than San Diego, but they don't really have a very good starting rotation at the moment. Their pitching strength comes from the bullpen with Eric O'Flaherty and Santiago Casilla holding down the setup-closer one-two punch, but that isn't going to help them break .500 this year.
#5 San Diego Padres (70-92) : The Padres are extremely one-sided this season, and they will be desperate for pitching from game 1 to game 162. Their offense is actually pretty decent for a team projected to lose close to 100 games. Joe Mauer, Asdrubal Cabrera, Erick Aybar, Michael Bourn, and Curtis Grandserson give this team some pop. The bench is deep, but it's also full of guys about to come of the books. San Diego is in a race with Arizona to have the most money come off their salary after the 2015 season, and with over $60 million set to come off they are dominating the race. Their ace at the moment is Johan Santana, so they will basically be looking for their entire rotation to come from their MiLB system. It's going to be a long season in San Diego, but their farm system is stacked and looks to be a Top 10 system going forward.
Only the Giants made the playoffs in 2014, with Arizona missing out after losing Goldschmidt for the end of the season. That won't be an issue this year with Arizona, Los Angeles, Colorado, and San Diego setting their sights on the future. Non-San Francisco NL West fans should hit up Baseball America or ESPN and bone up on the 2016 draft class, they are going to be drafting early.
NL West Projected Finish
#1 San Francisco Giants (100-62) : The Giants are simply loaded, again, and barring any injuries will be a favorite to win the World Series for a second time. The Giants wheeled and dealed this offseason to unload some contracts and got younger on offense. Chris Davis and Robinson Cano are gone in favor of Jason Kipnis, Rusney Castillo, and J.D. Martinez. They also added Felix Hernandez, who can replace David Price after he left for free agency. They have one of the most solid offenses in baseball and the deepest rotation, it looks like only the Cubs have the firepower to stop them from repeating as World Champions. They headed into free agency with $14.6 million to spend, but instead of spending on free agents they made some moves and brought in Miguel Cabrera.
Bumgarner could unseat Clayton Kershaw as the NL Cy Young winner.
#2 Arizona Diamondbacks (76-84) : Faint praise, but the Diamondbacks might be the second best team in this division again. The gap in wins between #1 and #2 is going to be significantly wider than #2 and #5, and to be honest anybody from 2-5 could easily finish last in the division. The only thing holding this team up is having some high-upside hitting and starting pitchers. Paul Goldschmidt has MVP potential, and Yasmany Tomas could be a real surprise. An entire season of David Peralta and Chris Owings might just be enough to boost this team from worst to almost-worst. Gio Gonzalez should have a bounce back season, and Patrick Corbin might help after the All Star break, but beyond them this rotation is a real launching pad.
Will Goldschmidt finally lift the MVP Award?
#3 Los Angeles Dodgers (72-90) : This is where projecting the standings gets hard, but the Dodgers get a small edge for having a slightly more complete roster. They still have a big name in Prince Fielder, but beyond that they are lacking in high end talent. Fielder will have to return from a lost 2014 season if the Dodgers are going to avoid a 100 loss season. The rotation is full, unlike San Diego, but it's mostly just warm bodies and bloated contracts. This team is very expensive, doesn't have a very high ceiling, and swap a bunch of talent for impact prospects.
Can Fielder return to All-Star form?
#4 Colorado Rockies (72-90) : The Rockies look like they are stuck somewhere between the Dodgers and Padres as far as roster construction goes. They have depth on offense and some decent pitching options, but they will need good seasons from guys like Ryan Howard to pass Los Angeles. Troy Tulowitzki is one of the best players in baseball, and will probably be in Colorado for quite some time, but he's alone in terms of high impact bats. James Loney, Will Middlebrooks, and Josh Reddick are decent players but hardly All-Star talent. Colorado has more pitchers than San Diego, but they don't really have a very good starting rotation at the moment. Their pitching strength comes from the bullpen with Eric O'Flaherty and Santiago Casilla holding down the setup-closer one-two punch, but that isn't going to help them break .500 this year.
It could be a long season for the Rockies' stars... again.
Not even PetCo Park can save this pitching staff.
Monday, April 6, 2015
2015 Cactus League Evaluation
SCOTTSDALE - Nestled between McCormick Ranch Golf Club and the Talking Stick Resort sits Salt River Fields at Talking Stick, the spring home of the Arizona Diamondbacks. While standing between a golf course and a resort hotel it's not a stretch to think Tony LaRussa managed to sign Yasmany Tomas and Yoan Lopez by showing them where they would be staying for spring training, but let's say they were more interested in actually playing baseball.
Another spring of Cactus League baseball and we have our 2015 Arizona Diamondbacks. The departure of Aaron Hill made a $6.8 million hole in the roster, but warm-body types like Blake DeWitt are happy to fill in. The long term infield solution might look completely different, with Yasmany Tomas looking like he will either start at 3B or get sent to the minors. Ultimately he may be sent to the outfield and Jake Lamb will be given an opportunity to grab the hot corner. Luis Sardinas is also looking like someone who could be an MLB mainstay at 2B with Chris Owings holding down SS, but for this season he's starting off in Reno.
The real problem for 2015 is behind the plate, the team's only options are John Baker and Rule 5 draft selection Oscar Hernandez, who broke a hamate bone recently. Unless Arizona rushes drool-inducing catching prospect Pete O'Brien, there is going to be an offensive black hole behind the plate. While all of these issues look bad, it's fairly obvious the Diamondbacks are not in a position to compete for anything this year and won't be making any drastic moves to change that fact.
With the depth chart in place and the season set to begin there are only a few subjects that will dominate team coverage this year. Conversation will probably be dominated by Paul Goldschmidt's run at NL MVP, but you can only talk about how good one player is for so long until things start to get stale.
Patrick Corbin (Again) - Attention turns back to Patrick Corbin, but this time it's going to be about his recovery from Tommy John surgery. With just about everyone from the 2014 rotation gone and Gio Gonzalez firmly seated in the Ace position, it's up to Corbin to show that he can get back to his 2013 form. There won't be much for the Diamondbacks faithful to worry about this season, the team could be one of the worst in the NL if not all of baseball, so Corbin is going to be the center of attention when he is scheduled to come back around mid-season. Sources say management dangled Corbin during the winter meetings, but few offers rolled in that interested ownership. If Corbin can't make a comeback, they will have lost out on any potential returns.
Yasmany Tomas - The Cuban slugger has been compared to Jose Abreu and Red Sox signing Rusney Castillo, but in reality nobody really knows what Tomas is going to do in his first major league season. Modest projections have him as a 25HR slugger with some work to do in terms of his plate discipline, and his defense is a real question mark. He played 3B and LF during spring training, with the team settling on 3B to start the season, but most are just hoping he is league average as a defender. It's going to take the entire season for Arizona to see if they have the next Yasiel Puig, or if they are stuck with a dud for the next six years. As of right now the 24-year old slugger is the Diamondbacks' best 'prospect' to speak of, but he needs to be more than a prospect if the team starts him out in the majors.
Prospects, Prospects, Prospects - Fans of minor league baseball in Reno and Mobile are probably more excited than Diamondback fans at the moment, and they might just have better teams to cheer on. The mass exodus of MLB starters filled up the Arizona affiliates with potential future stars, but at the moment all they are is potential. Guys like Jesse Winker and Austin Meadows are sure to draw fans and scouts alike, but they are not going to be called up to The Show anytime soon. A terrible season in the majors might bring more talent through the draft, like RHP Touki Toussaint, but they don't hang banners for high draft picks.
Another spring of Cactus League baseball and we have our 2015 Arizona Diamondbacks. The departure of Aaron Hill made a $6.8 million hole in the roster, but warm-body types like Blake DeWitt are happy to fill in. The long term infield solution might look completely different, with Yasmany Tomas looking like he will either start at 3B or get sent to the minors. Ultimately he may be sent to the outfield and Jake Lamb will be given an opportunity to grab the hot corner. Luis Sardinas is also looking like someone who could be an MLB mainstay at 2B with Chris Owings holding down SS, but for this season he's starting off in Reno.
The real problem for 2015 is behind the plate, the team's only options are John Baker and Rule 5 draft selection Oscar Hernandez, who broke a hamate bone recently. Unless Arizona rushes drool-inducing catching prospect Pete O'Brien, there is going to be an offensive black hole behind the plate. While all of these issues look bad, it's fairly obvious the Diamondbacks are not in a position to compete for anything this year and won't be making any drastic moves to change that fact.
Arizona Diamondbacks Depth Chart - 2015
- Catcher
- J. Baker
- First Base
- P. Goldschmidt
- L. Overbay
- Second Base
- O. Infante
- C. Owings
- Third Base
- J. Lamb
- B. DeWitt
- Shortstop
- C. Owings
- J.J. Hardy
- Left Field
- M. Krauss
- Center Field
- E. Inciarte
- T. Gwynn Jr.
- Right Field
- D. Peralta
- Starting Pitcher
- G. Gonzalez
- M. Cain
- M. Bolsinger
- T. Cahill
- J. Johnson
- Relief Pitcher
- A. Torres
- M. Reynolds
- K. Slowey
- E. De La Rosa
- C. Thielbar
- F. Cordero
- Closer
- J. Soria
- J. Johnson
- Designated Hitter
- J.J. Hardy
- Disabled List
- P. Corbin
- O. Hernandez
- T. Campana
With the depth chart in place and the season set to begin there are only a few subjects that will dominate team coverage this year. Conversation will probably be dominated by Paul Goldschmidt's run at NL MVP, but you can only talk about how good one player is for so long until things start to get stale.
Patrick Corbin (Again) - Attention turns back to Patrick Corbin, but this time it's going to be about his recovery from Tommy John surgery. With just about everyone from the 2014 rotation gone and Gio Gonzalez firmly seated in the Ace position, it's up to Corbin to show that he can get back to his 2013 form. There won't be much for the Diamondbacks faithful to worry about this season, the team could be one of the worst in the NL if not all of baseball, so Corbin is going to be the center of attention when he is scheduled to come back around mid-season. Sources say management dangled Corbin during the winter meetings, but few offers rolled in that interested ownership. If Corbin can't make a comeback, they will have lost out on any potential returns.
Can Corbin make an impact in 2015?
Yasmany Tomas - The Cuban slugger has been compared to Jose Abreu and Red Sox signing Rusney Castillo, but in reality nobody really knows what Tomas is going to do in his first major league season. Modest projections have him as a 25HR slugger with some work to do in terms of his plate discipline, and his defense is a real question mark. He played 3B and LF during spring training, with the team settling on 3B to start the season, but most are just hoping he is league average as a defender. It's going to take the entire season for Arizona to see if they have the next Yasiel Puig, or if they are stuck with a dud for the next six years. As of right now the 24-year old slugger is the Diamondbacks' best 'prospect' to speak of, but he needs to be more than a prospect if the team starts him out in the majors.
Tomas will likely start the season in Reno.
Prospects, Prospects, Prospects - Fans of minor league baseball in Reno and Mobile are probably more excited than Diamondback fans at the moment, and they might just have better teams to cheer on. The mass exodus of MLB starters filled up the Arizona affiliates with potential future stars, but at the moment all they are is potential. Guys like Jesse Winker and Austin Meadows are sure to draw fans and scouts alike, but they are not going to be called up to The Show anytime soon. A terrible season in the majors might bring more talent through the draft, like RHP Touki Toussaint, but they don't hang banners for high draft picks.
The Diamondbacks' new marque prospect.
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